Evidence receipt / prediction
Published · transcript-backedSarah Paine: prediction
4 Oct 2023 Dwarkesh Podcast Sarah C. M. Paine — Why dictators keep making the same fatal mistake
“You will never have stable borders and then it's easy for others to fund insurgencies because you have this dominated population that hates being dominated.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Sarah Paine
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- prediction
- Recorded
- 4 Oct 2023
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…Right but is that a race he could have won or at least settled? In that, maybe if it wasn't for Churchill and Britain is just like, “You know what, we'll just let Hitler have Europe.” And then he doesn't go to war with America. Is it possible that there's a world in which Hitler just controls Europe? I think the problem with your question is that it’s just not who Hitler was. He wrote in Mein Kampf exactly what he wanted to do and that what you're describing is not what he's about. If he were about combining with the West and taking parts of the Soviet Union, maybe? But that's not what he's about. He has this whole genocidal program that goes with him. There's another issue is that if you take too much, like if you're going to go kill off the Poles, the Poles never give up. The Poles went through three partitions over their history but the Polish identity never disappeared. If you do that, it never goes away. You will never have stable borders and then it's easy for others to fund insurgencies because you have this dominated population that hates being dominated. It's not stable. Then suppose that before Stalingrad, he had stopped. At that point didn't he control like 30% of the Soviet Union?…
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