Evidence receipt / evaluation
Published · transcript-backedSarah Paine: evaluation
23 Jan 2025 Dwarkesh Podcast Sarah Paine — Why Japan lost WWII (lecture & interview)
“During World War II, the United States had sanctuary, which means other people couldn't touch us at home, and our productive base was not touched and that was essential.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Sarah Paine
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- evaluation
- Recorded
- 23 Jan 2025
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…Doesn’t this counter the death ground thing? There's something called precision nuclear strike, and it has changed things. During World War II, the United States had sanctuary, which means other people couldn't touch us at home, and our productive base was not touched and that was essential. There are many things that were essential for Allied victory. Take any one of them away, and the outcome is different. One of the essential things is this productive base. This time around, all kinds of people can come get the United States. A lot of times in foreign affairs, you can't solve things; and I don't know who originally said this, but you manage things. And so, this is where the sanctions and things come in. You give people a timeout from the world order. You don't solve it. 01:43:25 You look at North Korea, that is not solved by a long shot. But at least South Korea can go become prosperous, and the North is just sitting with its timeout and being more and more malign at home. But it's more like that it’s- of not recognizing, for instance, conquest. This is what went on, actually, when Stalin took over the Baltic states. We never recognized that. In fact, they ran governments in exile based on the funds that, I think, the Baltic states had their funds in US banks. So when Stalin overran them, I think those funds became what funded their embassies. And so, N generations later, we recognize their independence. These things are not solved on anyone's watch. Basically, if you want the things… the way the last Cold War ended, it's because the Chinese and Russians changed their minds. You have to wait for others to come to their own decisions. What is the track record of sanctions actually changing other people's minds? Because if you look at the world today —…
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