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Sarah Paine

Published podcast speaker

Claims
132
Episodes
7
Shows
1
Named items
0

Claim ledger

What Sarah said.

21 transcript-backed records

01 / prediction

What he’s done will take a generation at minimum to get to anywhere where people are going to be thinking about… People will be talking about reparations from Russia for quite a while and they’re poor, they’re not going to want to do that.

“What he’s done will take a generation at minimum to get to anywhere where people are going to be thinking about… People will be talking about reparations from Russia for quite a while and they’re poor, they’re not going to want to do that.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

02 / prediction

The way deterrence theory worked during the Cold War, and I believe now as well, is that in order to deter the other side, you have to have a reliable second-strike capability.

“The way deterrence theory worked during the Cold War, and I believe now as well, is that in order to deter the other side, you have to have a reliable second-strike capability.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

04 / prediction

Also because China is so isolated by this war, it has no international friends but Russia, it’s going to tie China to Russia ever more firmly and give Russia breathing space to rebuild after World War II while its Western enemies are wasting time in Korea.

“Also because China is so isolated by this war, it has no international friends but Russia, it’s going to tie China to Russia ever more firmly and give Russia breathing space to rebuild after World War II while its Western enemies are wasting time in Korea.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

09 / prediction

Once the Germans maximize their territorial conquest, they've reduced the Russian population—because they've conquered all these areas—to less than that of the United States.

“Once the Germans maximize their territorial conquest, they've reduced the Russian population—because they've conquered all these areas—to less than that of the United States.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

12 / prediction

If you knock off 2% growth per annum, I think the doubling time of an economy… I don't know, if you knock a couple of percentage points off, it goes from 25 years to 75 years.

“If you knock off 2% growth per annum, I think the doubling time of an economy… I don't know, if you knock a couple of percentage points off, it goes from 25 years to 75 years.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

13 / prediction

They're looking at China going, that's our future if we don't fix things. They're thinking the solution for Japan is empire, because in those days that seemed to be the way powerful countries ran things.

“They're looking at China going, that's our future if we don't fix things. They're thinking the solution for Japan is empire, because in those days that seemed to be the way powerful countries ran things.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

15 / prediction

Because once Russia completes this thing, it's going to overturn the Asian balance of power because Russia is going to be able to deploy troops where nobody else can.

“Because once Russia completes this thing, it's going to overturn the Asian balance of power because Russia is going to be able to deploy troops where nobody else can.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

17 / prediction

0:39:14 But so here's Admiral Ugaki Matome who is talking- he eventually comes around to recommending a more defensive strategy of not having this fleet on fleet because they don't have - they've lost a lot of the fleet and then they don't have the fuel to run it.

“0:39:14 But so here's Admiral Ugaki Matome who is talking- he eventually comes around to recommending a more defensive strategy of not having this fleet on fleet because they don't have - they've lost a lot of the fleet and then they don't have the fuel to run it.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

18 / prediction

I think at some stage, we decide to pull them out of Japan and blockade them eternally. And then you've got, I don't know, Japan is like a new North Korea, just this inevitable, these eternal, non-functioning society.

“I think at some stage, we decide to pull them out of Japan and blockade them eternally. And then you've got, I don't know, Japan is like a new North Korea, just this inevitable, these eternal, non-functioning society.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

19 / prediction

You will never have stable borders and then it's easy for others to fund insurgencies because you have this dominated population that hates being dominated.

“You will never have stable borders and then it's easy for others to fund insurgencies because you have this dominated population that hates being dominated.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

20 / prediction

Because unlike Ukraine, if you have a continental position, if someone threatens you and invades on a given day, you have a choice on that given day, the day they chose, either you're going to capitulate or you're going to fight.

“Because unlike Ukraine, if you have a continental position, if someone threatens you and invades on a given day, you have a choice on that given day, the day they chose, either you're going to capitulate or you're going to fight.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast
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