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Sarah Paine

Published podcast speaker

Claims
132
Episodes
7
Shows
1
Named items
0

Claim ledger

What Sarah said.

54 transcript-backed records

01 / evaluation

If it had tanked Cold War termination or upset the reunification of Germany, France and Britain might have been very happy, because François Mitterrand, who is the president of France, and Margaret Thatcher, prime minister of Britain, were against German unification.

“If it had tanked Cold War termination or upset the reunification of Germany, France and Britain might have been very happy, because François Mitterrand, who is the president of France, and Margaret Thatcher, prime minister of Britain, were against German unification.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

02 / evaluation

If you’re working for a subunit of an enterprise, you have to lie about the inventories you have, saying you have less than you do, and then you have to lie about what you need, saying you need more than you do because you’re worried about getting enough things.

“If you’re working for a subunit of an enterprise, you have to lie about the inventories you have, saying you have less than you do, and then you have to lie about what you need, saying you need more than you do because you’re worried about getting enough things.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

03 / evaluation

Turns out the domino theory did not apply to capitalism. It applied to communism because once the democratic contagion hit one Warsaw Pact country in Eastern Europe, it spread to the others until it was a seething mess and they fell like dominoes.

“Turns out the domino theory did not apply to capitalism. It applied to communism because once the democratic contagion hit one Warsaw Pact country in Eastern Europe, it spread to the others until it was a seething mess and they fell like dominoes.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

08 / evaluation

They make those big investments and it takes a while for them to pay off. That was a big deal because they needed help from Western oil companies or whoever does the gas pipelines, compressors, whatever it is you need.

“They make those big investments and it takes a while for them to pay off. That was a big deal because they needed help from Western oil companies or whoever does the gas pipelines, compressors, whatever it is you need.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

09 / evaluation

Leonid Brezhnev was in power for 18 long years and not only did he collect cars, that was apparently the go-to gift for him, but in addition he was collecting a bunch of non-performing piles across the Third World because this is manifesting Russian power.

“Leonid Brezhnev was in power for 18 long years and not only did he collect cars, that was apparently the go-to gift for him, but in addition he was collecting a bunch of non-performing piles across the Third World because this is manifesting Russian power.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

10 / evaluation

For Russia it’s really devastating having China as an enemy because it’s going to have to deploy mechanized nuclear-armed troops all along its really long Chinese border, Central Asia, the works.

“For Russia it’s really devastating having China as an enemy because it’s going to have to deploy mechanized nuclear-armed troops all along its really long Chinese border, Central Asia, the works.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

13 / evaluation

Once you command the Atlantic—which means that a sustainable amount of traffic is going to get through from the Allied powers—then you can start thinking about peripheral theaters.

“Once you command the Atlantic—which means that a sustainable amount of traffic is going to get through from the Allied powers—then you can start thinking about peripheral theaters.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

15 / evaluation

The terminology comes from Carl von Clausewitz, who is the Western guru on conventional land warfare. It means if you're attacking in a battle, if you go too far you'll weaken yourself because the enemy will counterattack and send you further backwards than you would have otherwise been.

“The terminology comes from Carl von Clausewitz, who is the Western guru on conventional land warfare. It means if you're attacking in a battle, if you go too far you'll weaken yourself because the enemy will counterattack and send you further backwards than you would have otherwise been.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

16 / evaluation

It was just losing one thing after another. But once you get the big continental buddy—don't dismiss the importance of a big continental buddy—that is in the area where the fighting is taking place, not separated by the seas, but there with a big army, that was essential.

“It was just losing one thing after another. But once you get the big continental buddy—don't dismiss the importance of a big continental buddy—that is in the area where the fighting is taking place, not separated by the seas, but there with a big army, that was essential.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

17 / evaluation

We're also coordinating with the Russians so that you're setting up not only war termination but also what postwar institutions are going to be like to hold the peace. It's a completely different event from World War I when Russia falls out of the Entente because there are bread riots in St.

“We're also coordinating with the Russians so that you're setting up not only war termination but also what postwar institutions are going to be like to hold the peace. It's a completely different event from World War I when Russia falls out of the Entente because there are bread riots in St.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

21 / evaluation

When people have high seas access, it's really difficult to shut them down because China would have to go all the way around to be on the far side to shut everything down on the other side.

“When people have high seas access, it's really difficult to shut them down because China would have to go all the way around to be on the far side to shut everything down on the other side.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

22 / evaluation

They got southern Manchuria. It's actually arguably the valuable half, the southern half, because it has Port Arthur and Dalny and all the railways that Russians had invested there.

“They got southern Manchuria. It's actually arguably the valuable half, the southern half, because it has Port Arthur and Dalny and all the railways that Russians had invested there.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

23 / evaluation

Also notice it wants the warm water port, that's the orange part going down to Port Arthur, because Vladivostok, prior to the age of icebreakers, is frozen solid several months of the year.

“Also notice it wants the warm water port, that's the orange part going down to Port Arthur, because Vladivostok, prior to the age of icebreakers, is frozen solid several months of the year.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

24 / evaluation

If you look at the invasion routes that Japan uses and in the First Sino-Japanese War and the Russo-Japanese War, they're remarkably similar because guess what, the geography hasn't changed.

“If you look at the invasion routes that Japan uses and in the First Sino-Japanese War and the Russo-Japanese War, they're remarkably similar because guess what, the geography hasn't changed.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

25 / evaluation

They're getting rid of all those and then they go right to the bottom of the social pyramid, which is children. They decide that they need to have compulsory elementary education because they don't believe you can have a modern country, a strong country, without a literate population.

“They're getting rid of all those and then they go right to the bottom of the social pyramid, which is children. They decide that they need to have compulsory elementary education because they don't believe you can have a modern country, a strong country, without a literate population.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

28 / evaluation

They're quite proud of their achievements and it vastly increases the prestige of the military, particularly the army. This is going to have bad follow-on effects for civil military relations because it's going to increase military power over civil power but it takes a while to play out.

“They're quite proud of their achievements and it vastly increases the prestige of the military, particularly the army. This is going to have bad follow-on effects for civil military relations because it's going to increase military power over civil power but it takes a while to play out.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

29 / evaluation

Why? Because phase three is conventional warfare, which requires infinite supplies of conventional armaments that requires an industrial base to produce it, and somewhere like China lacks this industrial base.

“Why? Because phase three is conventional warfare, which requires infinite supplies of conventional armaments that requires an industrial base to produce it, and somewhere like China lacks this industrial base.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

32 / evaluation

One of the reasons Taiwan is Taiwan is after they lost the civil war and they are on the island of Taiwan, they did a big after-action analysis of what went wrong and they decided it was corruption and that it was land reform that they needed to fix those things. But they couldn't do land reform on the mainland because that's their officer corps.

“One of the reasons Taiwan is Taiwan is after they lost the civil war and they are on the island of Taiwan, they did a big after-action analysis of what went wrong and they decided it was corruption and that it was land reform that they needed to fix those things. But they couldn't do land reform on the mainland because that's their officer corps.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

33 / evaluation

If you compare—and I'm going to be doing a lot of comparisons with the Vietnam War and the Korean War because they're communists and all these things—you can see Mao's rural mobilization was very successful in China.

“If you compare—and I'm going to be doing a lot of comparisons with the Vietnam War and the Korean War because they're communists and all these things—you can see Mao's rural mobilization was very successful in China.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

34 / evaluation

Then, on the Long Retreat, Mao chose as his terminal point of retreat, like where you’re going to wind up, as up in Yenon, way up north, deep in Muslim and Mongol lands, but near the Soviet border. Mao thought that was essential because they're the big benefactor.

“Then, on the Long Retreat, Mao chose as his terminal point of retreat, like where you’re going to wind up, as up in Yenon, way up north, deep in Muslim and Mongol lands, but near the Soviet border. Mao thought that was essential because they're the big benefactor.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

35 / evaluation

treat, like where you’re going to wind up, as up in Yenon, way up north, deep in Muslim and Mongol lands, but near the Soviet border. Mao thought that was essential because they're the big benefactor.

“treat, like where you’re going to wind up, as up in Yenon, way up north, deep in Muslim and Mongol lands, but near the Soviet border. Mao thought that was essential because they're the big benefactor.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

36 / evaluation

" 00:20:16 And then, when the Japanese invaded Manchuria in 1931, the new slogan is, "Down with imperialism and the Nationalist Party too," because you want to smear your enemy in the civil war while you're at it there.

“" 00:20:16 And then, when the Japanese invaded Manchuria in 1931, the new slogan is, "Down with imperialism and the Nationalist Party too," because you want to smear your enemy in the civil war while you're at it there.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

37 / evaluation

Mao and his guerillas, well, actually, here's what Mao really says: "Regular forces are of primary importance because it is they who alone are capable of producing the decision," like winning the war.

“Mao and his guerillas, well, actually, here's what Mao really says: "Regular forces are of primary importance because it is they who alone are capable of producing the decision," like winning the war.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

38 / evaluation

You've already done a three-year tour in World War II because, in those days, you started serving whenever it was in the war, and you weren't coming home until the war was over.

“You've already done a three-year tour in World War II because, in those days, you started serving whenever it was in the war, and you weren't coming home until the war was over.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

39 / evaluation

The Japanese are looking at the operational level and going, why do you care about these countries? We care about the entire system because our prosperity is based on it.

“The Japanese are looking at the operational level and going, why do you care about these countries? We care about the entire system because our prosperity is based on it.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

41 / evaluation

Because for an expeditionary force, you absolutely need the Navy to deliver you there, to maintain your supplies there and they're thinking, the army's thinking, you navy are being irresponsible, not doing any of these things.

“Because for an expeditionary force, you absolutely need the Navy to deliver you there, to maintain your supplies there and they're thinking, the army's thinking, you navy are being irresponsible, not doing any of these things.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

42 / evaluation

0:26:15 First is risk intolerance because remember at the beginning I started with the two flag officers saying “well, we're going to do this war in the Pacific when it's unlikely we're going to succeed but we're going to do it anyway”.

“0:26:15 First is risk intolerance because remember at the beginning I started with the two flag officers saying “well, we're going to do this war in the Pacific when it's unlikely we're going to succeed but we're going to do it anyway”.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

43 / evaluation

The Americans, why did they drop atomic bombs on the Japanese? And there was no disagreement about that in the United States at the time because it was a question of: are you going to send American young men your age- and millions of them would have died hitting the home islands- or are you going to do the bombing?

“The Americans, why did they drop atomic bombs on the Japanese? And there was no disagreement about that in the United States at the time because it was a question of: are you going to send American young men your age- and millions of them would have died hitting the home islands- or are you going to do the bombing?”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

44 / evaluation

During World War II, the United States had sanctuary, which means other people couldn't touch us at home, and our productive base was not touched and that was essential.

“During World War II, the United States had sanctuary, which means other people couldn't touch us at home, and our productive base was not touched and that was essential.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

46 / evaluation

They're going to fight brutally against overwhelming odds. So in the West, when we like to mirror image, we want to think of the rational actor with some kind of mathematically based cost benefit of when you should give up, when the costs are so high above whatever your value of the object is you ought to call it quits.

“They're going to fight brutally against overwhelming odds. So in the West, when we like to mirror image, we want to think of the rational actor with some kind of mathematically based cost benefit of when you should give up, when the costs are so high above whatever your value of the object is you ought to call it quits.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

47 / evaluation

In the west, the moment you as a soldier start losing a battle, you can retreat and surrender and it's not dishonorable because you're going to live to fight another day.

“In the west, the moment you as a soldier start losing a battle, you can retreat and surrender and it's not dishonorable because you're going to live to fight another day.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

49 / evaluation

That lays the basis, not on purpose, of having international law where people who are eventually going to be running these independent countries have a legal training to use international law to their own kind of benefit. But anyway, Britain has this non-contiguous empire and after the war, it does not have the ability to hang on to them because of nationalism.

“That lays the basis, not on purpose, of having international law where people who are eventually going to be running these independent countries have a legal training to use international law to their own kind of benefit. But anyway, Britain has this non-contiguous empire and after the war, it does not have the ability to hang on to them because of nationalism.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

52 / evaluation

What's death ground? It's when your enemy puts you on death ground, which means they're going to kill you, and therefore, you have no choice but to fight, because if you don't fight, you're dead.

“What's death ground? It's when your enemy puts you on death ground, which means they're going to kill you, and therefore, you have no choice but to fight, because if you don't fight, you're dead.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

53 / evaluation

The Chinese Communist Party has clearly made the decision that it wants to maintain a monopoly of political power. And for a while there, during Deng Xiaoping, that worked because the reforms that they wanted to make for agriculture and things, they can maintain their monopoly of power but also do things that allow people to get much wealthier.

“The Chinese Communist Party has clearly made the decision that it wants to maintain a monopoly of political power. And for a while there, during Deng Xiaoping, that worked because the reforms that they wanted to make for agriculture and things, they can maintain their monopoly of power but also do things that allow people to get much wealthier.”
Speaker
Sarah Paine
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast
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