Sarah Paine: evaluation

Transcript context

…What's the scenario in which both Hitler and Stalin could have been defeated in World War II? Is there some system of alliances or counterfactual where that happens? No. I think the problem is World War I. World War I has enormous consequences. All sides allowed their generals to make strategy. No one is doing grand strategy in World War I. It's all about operational success, this is what we're all going to do. And then the generals keep sending up waves and waves of young men up over the trenches. What do you think is going to happen to them if you send them over the trenches? This is how you get these horrific death rates. Hundreds of thousands in a battle. In our own day it's inconceivable. You have a massive power vacuum because of that war. Not only does it upend Europe by getting rid of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the German Empire, the Russian Empire, but it puts two really pernicious ideologies on steroids. Fascists and communists. And that's how you get all that evil. It's out of a gross mismanagement of World War I. Once they're off and running, you've got problems on your hands. And you've got a long solution. Back to your initial question, does grand strategy matter? It does. Look at World War I when they didn't practice it and the civilians allowed the officers to make all decisions. Britain is a country that is maritime by geography but then they built a continental sized army. That is not Britain's great strength in World War I. The victory in World War I was at the horrific cost of the beginning of the end of the British Empire. Britain is the only country that fights Hitler all the way from 1939 to 1945. Whereas Stalin only fights Hitler after he himself is invaded and in fact collaborates with him to dissect Poland. After the war, Russia expands beyond any ambition that a czar might have had. Whereas the British Empire is about to collapse and loses all its territories. What explains the differing outcomes of these two countries post World War II? And why did the post war objectives of Stalin succeed much more?…

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