Sarah Paine: evaluation

Transcript context

…s. The Chinese are not going to have full sovereignty over their country for a very, very long time. The story gets even worse. This happens to China because China loses a succession of regional wars. It loses the First Opium War, the Second Opium War, the Japanese snag the Ryukyu Islands. Then in the Sino-French War, China loses control over Indochina. Then in the Sino-Japanese War, they're losing their tributary of Korea. The Ili crisis is up in Xinjiang, which goes a little better for them. This is a mess. This is not business as usual. Think about one country being afflicted by this much trouble. Then it comes at a time when the Manchus are in real trouble themselves. They had ridden to power on these fabulous cavalries and tremendous operational success for a people who are only 2% of the population that they dominate. They transform China into the richest polity around the globe by the 18th century. But here's the problem. With their tremendous success in their military campaign. They're overextending China financially. Inside the round circle there, that's China proper. These are the core provinces of China that produce all the income. The Manchus came in from Manchuria up there, but they also take Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Tibet. Not Manchuria so much, but the other ones, they cost a lot of garrisoning. It costs a lot of money to garrison these places. It looks like a great success, but it's going to have problems later on. Then here's what happens to the Manchu emperors. They no longer ride at the head of their armies. The Qianlong Emperor, who's considered to have ruled at the height of the dynasty, what's he spending his money on? All sorts of interesting architectural programs. That's why people think he's great, he builds beautiful things. But these emperors are isolated. They don't have command experience, expensive spending habits. Then it gets better. So they got all these tributaries. Some of their tributaries produce really high quality opium. The emperors decide they want to sample the goods, and the people who are preparing it for them also want to sample the goods. Then the Manchu banner forces that are the Praetorian Guard of the Manchus are also sampling the goods. Then you go, why are the last Qing emperors incapable of producing offspring or have hardly any? They have huge harems, so what's their problem? Well, if you're really totally high on drugs, you can ruin yourself. So that is what goes on. No wonder they're losing these wars, if some of your key thinkers are not thinking very clearly. So the counter argument to my argument says, “Look, it's nonsense. The Japanese may have been really clever, but the real big event is this massive series of civil wars, European imperialism, and the collapse of Manchu minority rule. That would be the real thing.” e. The Japanese may have been really clever, but the real big event is this massive series of civil wars, European imperialism, and the collapse of Manchu minority rule. That would be the real thing.” Now, if I leave my argument here, I've just shot myself in the foot because I've just decimated my original argument with a pretty good counterargument. That would be bad. That would hurt. So you need to do a rebuttal. It's really good to come from an unexpected direction. So I'm going to try my direction, which is going to be Russia. I’d say, “Look, Russia is the catalyst. It's taking advantage of the collapse of China, and it's going to catalyze things in a way that Japan is going to leverage. It's going to be Japan leveraging these things. That proves that smart decisions in Tokyo answers the question.” So what's going on with Russia? Russia has always tried to expand its territory. It is today the largest country on the planet. Why they need more territory, nobody knows. But that's what they're after. And these days what they're taking are those two large areas. By the time the Bolsheviks finish working their magic, Russians have taken from the Chinese sphere of influence —the Bolsheviks are beyond today, but it gives you a sense— more territory than the United States east of the Mississippi. That's a lot of territory. But in this day, while the Opium Wars are going on and while the Taiping and Nian Rebellions, the two big ones, are happening simultaneously, the Russians go to the Qing and say, “Hey, we'll deal with those foreigners for you. We'll be an intermediary, but just sign on the dotted line for these treaties giving us all this land.” The Chinese were vague on geography and they didn't believe in treaties. They thought they'd get it back later. So Russia gets all this stuff, does exactly nothing because we know about the treaty port system. The British and French got all of it. Russia got this stuff too. Once Russia gets this stuff, that's why they want the railway, because they want to integrate it there. So the Trans-Siberian Railway is the blue thing, but understand that the blue part that's above the green part, that wasn't built until World War I. Russia built the green part, which is the Chinese Eastern Railway, the name of it, in order to stake out its plans for empire. Also notice it wants the warm water port, that's the orange part going down to Port Arthur, because Vladivostok, prior to the age of icebreakers, is frozen solid several months of the year. So Russia's building this railway. To save on construction costs, it's more direct going straight across Manchuria. Contain Japan, stake out its claim to Manchuria. The Japanese get it. Well, that was earlier in this lecture. They see this coming and they don't like it. Then in addition to what's going on, the Chinese don't particularly like all the imperialists messing with their country. And so the Boxers are another rebellion. These folks want all Westerners out of China and they want to kill any stragglers. They're all over China, they go into Manchuria. messing with their country. And so the Boxers are another rebellion. These folks want all Westerners out of China and they want to kill any stragglers. They're all over China, they go into Manchuria. The Russians send 100,000 troops, far more than any of the European powers or even Japan which sends a lot, to the rest of China to defeat the Boxers, which they do. Then the other Westerners in Japan remove their troops, Russia doesn't. This is the thing that gets Japan's attention, because Russia's got 100,000 troops in Manchuria that won't leave. That's when Japan is sick of Russia procrastinating and we're going to wind up getting into the Russo-Japanese War. So guess what? We're back to my original explanation, right? The Japanese finessed all of this and they wound up on top. It's by being very thoughtful in their grand strategy that they reverse the balance of power. I'm going to end this thing with General Nogi and a poem. General Nogi is the one who oversaw the four assaults on Port Arthur. He lost both of his sons in this war. One in the Battle of Nanshan, which is down the Liaodong Peninsula, and then his other, his favorite, under his command in Port Arthur. When the war was over, he asked the Meiji Emperor if he could commit ritual suicide, and the Emperor said no. So when the Meiji Emperor died, he and his wife did. This poem helps explain why: “Imperial troops, a million strong, conquered an arrogant enemy; But siege and field warfare left a mountain of corpses. Ashamed,what face can I show to old parents? How many men have returned this day of triumphal song?” Wars bring much sorrow. I leave you with that. Thank you very much for your attention.…

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