Sarah Paine: belief

Transcript context

…On the general framework of how continental powers should act and how maritime powers should act. I wonder if it's worth even designating the optimal strategy based on your geography. To the extent that you think positive sum trade is better than invading and doing bloody wars, that's true regardless of whether we have a maritime or continental situation. Yeah, I've just discussed geography because it's something I think most people don't think about. Particularly what's hilarious about people who buy navies—I've sadly had to read these naval theory books—they never look at the geography. They occasionally do, but it's sort of, "I'm going to get a big navy." Well, it depends where you live. I've just finished and edited a book about fleets and being. If you have a fleet, what does that foreclose for whoever's around you? What does it open for you? It's not a great read but I learn a lot from doing it. It becomes really clear. You can see that map there. You see Italy. You have in World War I, with that particular position, the Austro-Hungarian Empire has quite a good little submarine fleet. Captain von Trapp in The Sound of Music, he was a war hero, a submarine captain. Just by having that submarine fleet in there, it forced Britain to convoy the whole Mediterranean. Doesn't mean Austria-Hungary wins the war, but a very simple investment prevents anyone from invading over its oceans, which is important. It also makes the British do very expensive convoy duty because Captain von Trapp is quite good at sinking naval ships of the British. That's the difference. Your geographic position limits what you can do. But now we have a whole rules-based order, that if you join the party you have a massive alliance system. That's why I look at China and it doesn't have any allies. It has itself and it likes to have bilateral relations. But actually these international institutions, for those who actually are serious about them, it's a de facto alliance. NATO is most certainly an alliance. If you are the biggest trading partner with say 100 countries, do you have a lot of alliances? If not, then that seems more significant than just calling yourself an ally. You just have an incredibly strong vested interest in the other country. The reason America has a lot of alliances is because we have a lot of trade.…

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