Sarah Paine: recommendation

Transcript context

…t’s a model potentially to follow and a mentor who might help them. Except here’s the detail. When the Bolsheviks started doing better in their civil war, they really dialed back what their offer was. The original offer was, “tear up treaties, China gets all territory back, no payments necessary.” Under the new version of the Karakhan Manifesto, which the Russian Foreign Ministry goes and telegraphs to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. I’ve seen the document, or at least a copy of it in the archives in Taiwan. They send it back and say, “We’re willing to talk about these things. We’re going to hold some negotiations.” The facts are they didn’t return these concessionaries until the mid-20th century, 1950s, after the Westerners had returned almost all of their concession areas. This is not trivial. When we think of concession areas in the age of imperialism in China, you think of British ones: Hong Kong. Well, Hong Kong isn’t actually very big. The reason you know about Hong Kong is it makes lots of money, or at least it used to. The Russian concessionaries were huge. They didn’t make money but what else is new? But the Russians had by far the largest concession area of any other country. But from the Karakhan Manifesto is the origin of the myth of Sino-Soviet friendship, that the Russians somehow treated the Chinese nicely. And the Chinese Foreign Ministry officials, who would’ve known better, their government is overthrown within the decade. And presumably these documents just gather dust in the archives. My fourth example of derailing China’s rise concerns the First United Front between the Chinese Nationalists and Chinese Communist Party. Here’s the leader of the Nationalist Party and also leader of its armies, Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek. He led the Northern Expedition, reunifying China at least nominally by either defeating or co-opting all those warlords. There you can see different colors of where the major warlords were. Previous South China attempts to do this or to secede from China, one or the other, had failed for lack of a proficient military. But Russia changes that. It provides aid, arms, and expertise and structures and things to fund the Whampoa Military Academy, which is in Canton/Guangzhou. That institution is going to educate the officers, both Communist and Nationalists, who would lead not only this, but some of their civil war-era officers that make this reunification of China possible. But the Russians had a price. Give the Nationalists the aid, but the Nationalists then have to let the Communists into the Nationalist Party. That’s what the United Front is. This all coincides with a bitter succession struggle in Russia. This is the problem with dictatorships. They really don’t do succession well. It’s why elections are so convenient. Instead you have Stalin and Trotsky going at it over which one was going to be the big cheese. Stalin is all about socialism in one country. He thinks that Russia ought to focus on its own internal development. u have Stalin and Trotsky going at it over which one was going to be the big cheese. Stalin is all about socialism in one country. He thinks that Russia ought to focus on its own internal development. Whereas Trotsky says, “Nonsense, we need to focus on world revolution because only if there are sister revolutions abroad can ours survive.” While this is all going on, the Chinese Communists really want to get out of that United Front. Why? Because it puts them in close proximity to the army, which is controlled by the Nationalists. They’re getting worried whether they’re about to get killed. The Russians say “No, no, no, no, it’s good. You stay in that United Front.” So they do. Chiang Kai-shek goes roaring up China. I’ve shown you the map. He reaches his home base in Shanghai, pauses, and he turns his guns on the Communists and just massacres them in droves. This is when Mao has to think of a rural strategy to power because the urban strategy is no longer feasible. Once this happens, Stalin can use it to just trounce Trotsky in the internal power struggle because he can say, “Look, see, revolution in one country. It doesn’t work abroad.” A lot of Chinese died proving Stalin’s point. Another example where Russia literally derails the rise of China. There’s a railway system in Manchuria. We’re going to talk rails. The Russo-Japanese War of 1904 and 1905, Japan wins it and gets from Russia, which built all these things in Chinese territory, the southern half of that railway net in lieu of an indemnity. Japan invests massively in railways, infrastructure, and apparently local politicians. But the ruling warlord apparently wasn’t sufficiently attentive to Japanese needs, so they assassinated him in 1928. His son, Zhang Xueliang, the following year in 1929 decides he wants his railways back from Russia. What does Russia do? It’s not either version of the Karakhan Manifesto. The Russians deploy over 100,000 troops, tanks, airplanes, the works, and just pound this man. The Russians keep their railways. So if you want to delay the rise of China, that sort of thing delays the rise of China. But now for the first rule of continental empire: no two-front wars. You move fast-forward to the 1930s and Stalin thinks he may very well face a two-front war with Germans in the west and Japanese in the east. Why would he think such thoughts? The Anti-Comintern Pact. Comintern is short for Communist International. It is the Soviet outreach program. It’s signed in 1936 between the Japanese and the Germans. Stalin goes, “Uh-oh, they’re after me.” He plays every one of his China cards and he holds lots of them. If you want to disintegrate the neighbors in order to delay their rise, well then you fund all sides of their civil wars and any side in between because you just want them to go at it. So he plays every card he’s got. What he wants are the Nationalists to stop fighting the Communists, vice versa, and unite to fight the Japanese. They’re willing to do this provided Stalin provides conventional aid, which he does, but they think he’s also going to provide soldiers. They don’t get it. Once they’re in, Russia is out of this thing. hey’re willing to do this provided Stalin provides conventional aid, which he does, but they think he’s also going to provide soldiers. They don’t get it. Once they’re in, Russia is out of this thing. Stalin’s plan, his script for the Chinese and Japanese, works beautifully. Because when the Nationalists unite in the Second United Front with the Communists, going back to the dark side, the Japanese are apoplectic. This is when they do the massive escalation in 1937 and they are off to overextension into parts due south of Russia. So this two-front Japanese-German war never materialized. Stalin was very successful, the Chinese less so because the Chinese are fighting the Japanese so the Russians don’t have to. That comes at the price of millions of deaths, millions of refugees, that does indeed derail China’s rise yet again. Next example. Per the Yalta agreement, Russia finally gets into the war in Asia. About time. In the very final weeks, in this August Storm the Russians deploy 1.5 million soldiers. It’s one of the largest military operations of World War II. They rapidly take Manchuria. That would be the normal thing, but here’s the abnormal thing. They also take away Manchuria’s industrial base. That would not normally be what you do to someone. They take 83% of the electrical power equipment, take it home to Russia, not turning lights on in Manchuria. 86% of mining, 82% of cement making, 80% of metalworking equipment. Plus they take 640,000 Japanese POWs to be slave labor for decades, if they ever get home at all. And they also take the northern islands, which are still under dispute today. But if you think about it, if you’re going to do indemnities or reparations or whatever this is, China had been fighting Japan in one form or another for 15 long years. Russia comes in for the cameo performance at the very end. So if there are indemnities to be paid for whatever Japan did in this war, surely China, not Russia, should have been the recipient for all this stuff. In addition, there’s another example. Not only does Stalin walk away with the industrial base, but he walks away with Mongolia as well. How does that work? The Yalta agreement also stipulates that the status quo shall be maintained in Mongolia. So then you have to look at, well, what was the status quo? It was the Russian sphere of influence in the north, Chinese continuing control in the south. Mongolia, which had always been both those places, had been part of the Qing Empire, never been part of the Russian Empire. Moreover, Stalin had already taken Tannu Tuva in 1944. It looks small on this map, but it’s bigger than England. It had lots of gold, which the Soviets had monetized long ago. So if you add up all the territory that the Russians took from the Chinese sphere of influence from the 1858 Treaty of Aigun and 1860 Treaty of Peking, fast-forward to detaching Outer Mongolia from the Chinese sphere of influence. Here’s what it really is. It’s greater than all US territory east of the Mississippi. This is not your normal land grab. So talk about derailing somebody, that would do it.…

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