Public evidence record
CEO · Anthropic
Claim ledger
38 transcript-backed records
01 / belief
“I have a strong view—99%, 95%—that all this will happen in 10 years. I think that’s just a super safe bet.”
02 / belief
“There are three, maybe four, players within cloud. I think that’s the same for AI, three, maybe four.”
03 / belief
“The chips and the data centers aren’t, and the AI industry itself isn’t. Another possibility I think folks should think about is this.”
04 / belief
“Again, I’m making much weaker claims here than I believe, to distinguish between two things.”
05 / belief
“With coding, except for that irreducible uncertainty, I think we’ll be there in one or two years.”
06 / belief
“I think diffusion is very real and doesn’t exclusively have to do with limitations on the AI models.”
07 / belief
“I would bet it stays pretty fast even as the scale goes to the entire economy. So I think we should be thinking about this middle world where things are extremely fast, but not instant, where they take time because of economic diffusion, because of the need to close the loop.”
08 / belief
“Again, I think there’s some way to make this happen. The governments of the world may have to work together to make it happen.”
09 / belief
“I simultaneously agree with you that it’s a reason why these things don’t happen instantly, but at the same time, I think the effect is gonna be very fast.”
10 / belief
“We’re under an incredible amount of commercial pressure and make it even harder for ourselves because we have all this safety stuff we do that I think we do more than other companies.”
11 / belief
“Given the serious dangers that I lay out in “Adolescence of Technology” around things like biological weapons and bioterrorism autonomy risk, and the timelines we’ve been talking about—10 years is an eternity—I think that’s a crazy thing to do.”
12 / belief
“I said this in “Machines of Loving Grace”, I think we may get 10-20% per year growth in the economy, but we’re not gonna get 300% growth in the economy.”
13 / belief
“I think we say it in various ways in the constitution, that under normal circumstances, if someone asks the model to do a task, it should do that task.”
14 / belief
“I suspect even composing the technical exponential and diffusion exponential, we’ll get there before 2030.”
15 / belief
“Philanthropy should obviously play some role, as it has in the past. But I think growth is always better and stronger if we can make it endogenous.”
16 / belief
“I think generally the dynamic was I got this kind of inspiration from Ilya and from others, folks like Alec Radford, who did the original GPT-1 and then ran really hard with it, me and my collaborators, on GPT-2, GPT-3, RL from Human Feedback, which was an attempt to kind of deal with the early safety and durability, things like debate and amplification, heavy on interpretability.”
17 / belief
“I think RL has the potential to make models smarter, to make them reason better, to make them operate better, to make them develop new skills even.”
18 / belief
“I think that’s a mixture of things that are unnecessary in bureaucratic and things that kind of protect the integrity of society.”
19 / belief
“I think people are very excited by new models when they come out and then as time goes on, they become very aware of their limitations.”
20 / belief
“I think no matter how smart you are, people talk about, “Oh, we can make models of biological systems that’ll do everything the biological systems … ” Look, I think computational modeling can do a lot.”
21 / belief
“” Then I think at some point it’ll flip around where the AI systems will be the PIs, will be the leaders, and they’ll be ordering humans or other AI systems around.”
22 / belief
“I mean, I think we’re still early in terms of our ability to see things, but I’ve been surprised at how much we’ve been able to look inside these systems and understand what we see.”
23 / belief
“Currently, we’re not trying to make such IDEs ourself, rather we’re powering the companies like Cursor or Kognition or some of the other expo in the security space, others that I could mention as well that are building such things themselves on top of our API and our view has been let 1,000 flowers bloom.”
24 / belief
“The way I think about it actually is, well, so I think in the early stages, the AIs are going to be like grad students.”
25 / belief
““We discovered it, we figured it out.” But I think all things, even incredible discoveries, they almost always come down to the details.”
26 / belief
“I also think it’s going to be five or 10 years more than it’s going to be five or 10 hours, because I’ve just seen how human systems work. And I think a lot of these people who write down these differential equations, who say AI is going to make more powerful AI, who can’t understand how it could possibly be the case that these things won’t change so fast.”
27 / belief
“I’m not going to go into detail, but we’ve made a lot of progress on both and we’re prepared to be, I think, ready quite soon.”
28 / belief
“I think by the time, certainly within two to three years, whether we have these super powerful AIs or not, clusters are going to get to the size where you’ll be able to deploy millions of these.”
29 / belief
“I think we can go a little further and agree with some basic principles of democracy and the rule of law.”
30 / belief
“I think we look at some of the benchmarks where previous models were like, “Oh, could do it 6% of the time,” and now our model would do it 14 or 22% of the time.”
31 / belief
“I think that’s probably a bad idea during training because the model can be changing its policy, it can be changing what it’s doing and it’s having an effect in the real world.”
32 / belief
“I’m not worried yet because, again, the risks aren’t here yet, but I think time is running short.”
33 / belief
“There was Rich Sutton’s bitter lesson, Gwern wrote about the scaling hypothesis. But I think somewhere between 2014 and 2017 was when it really clicked for me, when I really got conviction that, “Hey, we’re going to be able to these incredibly wide cognitive tasks if we just scale up the models.”
34 / belief
“The second caveat, and I just want to say this super clearly because I think some people don’t know it, others know it, but forget it.”
35 / belief
“Naming is actually an interesting challenge here, right? Because I think a year ago, most of the model was pre-training.”
36 / belief
“I think all these questions of drama are profoundly uninteresting and the thing that matters is the ecosystem that we all operate in and how to make that ecosystem better because that constrains all the players.”
37 / belief
“Around 2016 or 2017, I first started to really believe in or at least confirm my belief in the scaling hypothesis when Ilya famously said to me, “The thing you need to understand about these models is they just want to learn.”
38 / belief
“I think evaluations, we’re still very early in our ability to study evaluations, particularly for dynamic systems acting in the world.”