Dario Amodei: belief

Transcript context

…A fixed lump of labor fallacy… The economy is going to grow, right? That’s one of your predictions. We’re going to have the data centers in space. Yes, but this is another example of the theme I was talking about. The economy will grow much faster with AI than I think it ever has before. Right now the compute is growing 3x a year. I don’t believe the economy is gonna grow 300% a year. I said this in “Machines of Loving Grace”, I think we may get 10-20% per year growth in the economy, but we’re not gonna get 300% growth in the economy. So I think in the end, if compute becomes the majority of what the economy produces, it’s gonna be capped by that. So let’s assume a model where compute stays capped. The world where frontier labs are making money is one where they continue to make fast progress. Because fundamentally your margin is limited by how good the alternative is. So you are able to make money because you have a frontier model. If you didn’t have a frontier model you wouldn’t be making money. So this model requires there never to be a steady state. Forever and ever you keep making more algorithmic progress.…

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