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Dario Amodei

CEO · Anthropic

Claims
70
Episodes
2
Shows
2
Named items
0

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What Dario said.

10 transcript-backed records

01 / prediction

On the basic hypothesis of, as you put it, within ten years we’ll get to what I call a “country of geniuses in a data center”, I’m at 90% on that. It’s hard to go much higher than 90% because the world is so unpredictable.

“On the basic hypothesis of, as you put it, within ten years we’ll get to what I call a “country of geniuses in a data center”, I’m at 90% on that. It’s hard to go much higher than 90% because the world is so unpredictable.”
Speaker
Dario Amodei
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

02 / prediction

If every year we predict exactly what the demand is going to be, we’ll be profitable every year. Because spending 50% of your compute on research, roughly, plus a gross margin that’s higher than 50% and correct demand prediction leads to profit.

“If every year we predict exactly what the demand is going to be, we’ll be profitable every year. Because spending 50% of your compute on research, roughly, plus a gross margin that’s higher than 50% and correct demand prediction leads to profit.”
Speaker
Dario Amodei
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

05 / prediction

One way I think about it is if the technology is advancing quickly, if it’s advancing exponentially, what that means is there’s always a surface area of new use cases that have been developed in the last three months.

“One way I think about it is if the technology is advancing quickly, if it’s advancing exponentially, what that means is there’s always a surface area of new use cases that have been developed in the last three months.”
Speaker
Dario Amodei
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

06 / prediction

There’s a question of how much of that goes to the pharmaceutical company or the AI company, but there’s an enormous consumer surplus because —assuming we can get access for everyone, which I care about greatly—we cure all of these diseases.

“There’s a question of how much of that goes to the pharmaceutical company or the AI company, but there’s an enormous consumer surplus because —assuming we can get access for everyone, which I care about greatly—we cure all of these diseases.”
Speaker
Dario Amodei
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

07 / prediction

So a few things, now we’re talking about hitting the limit before we get to the level of humans and the skill of humans. So I think one that’s popular today, and I think could be a limit that we run into, like most of the limits, I would bet against it, but it’s definitely possible, is we simply run out of data.

“So a few things, now we’re talking about hitting the limit before we get to the level of humans and the skill of humans. So I think one that’s popular today, and I think could be a limit that we run into, like most of the limits, I would bet against it, but it’s definitely possible, is we simply run out of data.”
Speaker
Dario Amodei
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

08 / prediction

That’s my vision of the powerful AI system. But I think for much longer than we might expect, we will see that small parts of the job that humans still do will expand to fill their entire job in order for the overall productivity to go up.

“That’s my vision of the powerful AI system. But I think for much longer than we might expect, we will see that small parts of the job that humans still do will expand to fill their entire job in order for the overall productivity to go up.”
Speaker
Dario Amodei
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

09 / prediction

We came out with a new one just a few weeks ago and probably going forward, we might release new ones multiple times a year because it’s hard to get these policies right technically, organizationally from a research perspective.

“We came out with a new one just a few weeks ago and probably going forward, we might release new ones multiple times a year because it’s hard to get these policies right technically, organizationally from a research perspective.”
Speaker
Dario Amodei
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

10 / prediction

We’ve seen similar things in graduate-level math, physics, and biology from models like OpenAi’s o1. So if we just continue to extrapolate this in terms of skill that we have, I think if we extrapolate the straight curve, within a few years, we will get to these models being above the highest professional level in terms of humans.

“We’ve seen similar things in graduate-level math, physics, and biology from models like OpenAi’s o1. So if we just continue to extrapolate this in terms of skill that we have, I think if we extrapolate the straight curve, within a few years, we will get to these models being above the highest professional level in terms of humans.”
Speaker
Dario Amodei
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast
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