Dario Amodei: prediction

Transcript context

…So you’re predicting that within one to three years. And then, generally, Anthropic has predicted that by late ‘26 or early ‘27 we will have AI systems that “have the ability to navigate interfaces available to humans doing digital work today, intellectual capabilities matching or exceeding that of Nobel Prize winners, and the ability to interface with the physical world”. You gave an interview two months ago with DealBook where you were emphasizing your company’s more responsible compute scaling as compared to your competitors. I’m trying to square these two views. If you really believe that we’re going to have a country of geniuses, you want as big a data center as you can get. There’s no reason to slow down. The TAM of a Nobel Prize winner, that can actually do everything a Nobel Prize winner can do, is trillions of dollars. So I’m trying to square this conservatism, which seems rational if you have more moderate timelines, with your stated views about progress. It actually all fits together. We go back to this fast, but not infinitely fast, diffusion. Let’s say that we’re making progress at this rate. The technology is making progress this fast. I have very high conviction that we’re going to get there within a few years. I have a hunch that we’re going to get there within a year or two. So there’s a little uncertainty on the technical side, but pretty strong confidence that it won’t be off by much. What I’m less certain about is, again, the economic diffusion side. I really do believe that we could have models that are a country of geniuses in the data center in one to two years. One question is: How many years after that do the trillions in revenue start rolling in? I don’t think it’s guaranteed that it’s going to be immediate. It could be one year, it could be two years, I could even stretch it to five years although I’m skeptical of that. So we have this uncertainty. Even if the technology goes as fast as I suspect that it will, we don’t know exactly how fast it’s going to drive revenue. We know it’s coming, but with the way you buy these data centers, if you’re off by a couple years, that can be ruinous. It is just like how I wrote in “Machines of Loving Grace”. I said I think we might get this powerful AI, this “country of genius in the data center”. That description you gave comes from “Machines of Loving Grace”. I said we’ll get that in 2026, maybe 2027. Again, that is my hunch. I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m off by a year or two, but that is my hunch. Let’s say that happens. That’s the starting gun. How long does it take to cure all the diseases? That’s one of the ways that drives a huge amount of economic value. You cure every disease. There’s a question of how much of that goes to the pharmaceutical company or the AI company, but there’s an enormous consumer surplus because —assuming we can get access for everyone, which I care about greatly—we cure all of these diseases. How long does it take? You have to do the biological discovery, you have to manufacture the new drug, you have to go through the regulatory process. We saw this with vaccines and COVID. We got the vaccine out to everyone, but it took a year and a half. My question is: How long does it take to get the cure for everything—which AI is the genius that can in theory invent—out to everyone? How long from when that AI first exists in the lab to when diseases have actually been cured for everyone? We’ve had a polio vaccine for 50 years. We’re still trying to eradicate it in the most remote corners of Africa. The Gates Foundation is trying as hard as they can. Others are trying as hard as they can. But that’s difficult. Again, I don’t expect most of the economic diffusion to be as difficult as that. That’s the most difficult case. But there’s a real dilemma here. Where I’ve settled on it is that it will be faster than anything we’ve seen in the world, but it still has its limits. fficult as that. That’s the most difficult case. But there’s a real dilemma here. Where I’ve settled on it is that it will be faster than anything we’ve seen in the world, but it still has its limits. So when we go to buying data centers, again, the curve I’m looking at is: we’ve had a 10x a year increase every year. At the beginning of this year, we’re looking at $10 billion in annualized revenue. We have to decide how much compute to buy. It takes a year or two to actually build out the data centers, to reserve the data center. Basically I’m saying, “In 2027, how much compute do I get?” I could assume that the revenue will continue growing 10x a year, so it’ll be $100 billion at the end of 2026 and $1 trillion at the end of 2027. Actually it would be $5 trillion dollars of compute because it would be $1 trillion a year for five years. I could buy $1 trillion of compute that starts at the end of 2027. If my revenue is not $1 trillion dollars, if it’s even $800 billion, there’s no force on earth, there’s no hedge on earth that could stop me from going bankrupt if I buy that much compute. Even though a part of my brain wonders if it’s going to keep growing 10x, I can’t buy $1 trillion a year of compute in 2027. If I’m just off by a year in that rate of growth, or if the growth rate is 5x a year instead of 10x a year, then you go bankrupt. So you end up in a world where you’re supporting hundreds of billions, not trillions. You accept some risk that there’s so much demand that you can’t support the revenue, and you accept some risk that you got it wrong and it’s still slow. When I talked about behaving responsibly, what I meant actually was not the absolute amount. I think it is true we’re spending somewhat less than some of the other players. It’s actually the other things, like have we been thoughtful about it or are we YOLOing and saying, “We’re going to do $100 billion here or $100 billion there”? I get the impression that some of the other companies have not written down the spreadsheet, that they don’t really understand the risks they’re taking. They’re just doing stuff because it sounds cool. We’ve thought carefully about it. We’re an enterprise business. Therefore, we can rely more on revenue. It’s less fickle than consumer. We have better margins, which is the buffer between buying too much and buying too little. I think we bought an amount that allows us to capture pretty strong upside worlds. It won’t capture the full 10x a year. Things would have to go pretty badly for us to be in financial trouble. So we’ve thought carefully and we’ve made that balance. That’s what I mean when I say that we’re being responsible.…

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