Evidence receipt / prediction
Published · transcript-backedDario Amodei: prediction
13 Feb 2026 Dwarkesh Podcast Dario Amodei — "We are near the end of the exponential"
“If every year we predict exactly what the demand is going to be, we’ll be profitable every year. Because spending 50% of your compute on research, roughly, plus a gross margin that’s higher than 50% and correct demand prediction leads to profit.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Dario Amodei
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- prediction
- Recorded
- 13 Feb 2026
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…I see. So if I’m understanding correctly, you’re saying that because of the discrepancy between the amount of compute we should have gotten and the amount of compute we got, we were sort of forced to make profit. But that doesn’t mean we’re going to continue making profit. We’re going to reinvest the money because now AI has made so much progress and we want a bigger country of geniuses. So back into revenue is high, but losses are also high. If every year we predict exactly what the demand is going to be, we’ll be profitable every year. Because spending 50% of your compute on research, roughly, plus a gross margin that’s higher than 50% and correct demand prediction leads to profit. That’s the profitable business model that I think is kind of there, but obscured by these building ahead and prediction errors. I guess you’re treating the 50% as a sort of given constant, whereas in fact, if AI progress is fast and you can increase the progress by scaling up more, you should just have more than 50% and not make profit.…
Stored transcript either side of the excerpt. The highlighted words are the published quote; the surrounding text is unedited source, never generated.