Dario Amodei: belief

Transcript context

…To me, it’s just a platonic form of a powerful AI, exactly how you define it. You define it very nicely, so on the intelligence axis, it’s just on pure intelligence, it’s smarter than a Nobel Prize winner as you describe across most relevant disciplines. So okay, that’s just intelligence. So it’s both in creativity and be able to generate new ideas, all that kind of stuff in every discipline, Nobel Prize winner in their prime. It can use every modality, so this is self-explanatory, but just operate across all the modalities of the world. It can go off for many hours, days and weeks to do tasks and do its own detailed planning and only ask you help when it’s needed. This is actually interesting. I think in the essay you said … Again, it’s a bet that it’s not going to be embodied, but it can control embodied tools. So it can control tools, robots, laboratory equipment., the resource used to train it can then be repurposed to run millions of copies of it, and each of those copies would be independent that could do their own independent work. So you can do the cloning of the intelligence systems. Yeah. Yeah. You might imagine from outside the field that there’s only one of these, right? You’ve only made one. But the truth is that the scale up is very quick. We do this today,. We make a model, and then we deploy thousands, maybe tens of thousands of instances of it. I think by the time, certainly within two to three years, whether we have these super powerful AIs or not, clusters are going to get to the size where you’ll be able to deploy millions of these. And they’ll be faster than humans. And so, if your picture is, “Oh, we’ll have one and it’ll take a while to make them,” my point there was, no. Actually you have millions of them right away. And in general they can learn and act 10 to 100 times faster than humans. So that’s a really nice definition of powerful AI. Okay, so that. But, you also write that, “Clearly such an entity would be capable of solving very difficult problems very fast, but it is not trivial to figure out how fast. Two “extreme” positions both seem false to me.” So the singularity is on the one extreme and the opposite and the other extreme. Can you describe each of the extremes?…

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