Dario Amodei: belief

Transcript context

…You guys should have just bought a billion dollars of your own products so you could just… And the first month of this year, that exponential is... You would think it would slow down, but we added another few billion to revenue in January. Obviously that curve can’t go on forever. The GDP is only so large. I would even guess that it bends somewhat this year, but that is a fast curve. That’s a really fast curve. I would bet it stays pretty fast even as the scale goes to the entire economy. So I think we should be thinking about this middle world where things are extremely fast, but not instant, where they take time because of economic diffusion, because of the need to close the loop. Because it’s fiddly: “I have to do change management within my enterprise… I set this up, but I have to change the security permissions on this in order to make it actually work… I had this old piece of software that checks the model before it’s compiled and released and I have to rewrite it. Yes, the model can do that, but I have to tell the model to do that. It has to take time to do that.” So I think everything we’ve seen so far is compatible with the idea that there’s one fast exponential that’s the capability of the model. Then there’s another fast exponential that’s downstream of that, which is the diffusion of the model into the economy. Not instant, not slow, much faster than any previous technology, but it has its limits. When I look inside Anthropic, when I look at our customers: fast adoption, but not infinitely fast. Can I try a hot take on you?…

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