Dario Amodei: belief

Transcript context

…Do you know the Tyler Cowen quote? We never stop talking about economics. We never stop talking about economics. So no, I don’t think this field’s going to be a monopoly. All my lawyers never want me to say the word “monopoly”. But I don’t think this field’s going to be a monopoly. You do get industries in which there are a small number of players. Not one, but a small number of players. Ordinarily, the way you get monopolies like Facebook or Meta—I always call them Facebook—is these kinds of network effects. The way you get industries in which there are a small number of players, is very high costs of entry. Cloud is like this. I think cloud is a good example of this. There are three, maybe four, players within cloud. I think that’s the same for AI, three, maybe four. The reason is that it’s so expensive. It requires so much expertise and so much capital to run a cloud company. You have to put up all this capital. In addition to putting up all this capital, you have to get all of this other stuff that requires a lot of skill to make it happen. So if you go to someone and you’re like, “I want to disrupt this industry, here’s $100 billion.” You’re like, “okay, I’m putting in $100 billion and also betting that you can do all these other things that these people have been doing.” Only to decrease the profit.…

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