Dario Amodei: belief

Transcript context

…Maybe stepping back, I’m not saying I think the “country of geniuses” is going to come in two years and therefore you should buy this compute. To me, the end conclusion you’re arriving at makes a lot of sense. But that’s because it seems like “country of geniuses” is hard and there’s a long way to go. So stepping back, the thing I’m trying to get at is more that it seems like your worldview is compatible with somebody who says, “We’re like 10 years away from a world in which we’re generating trillions of dollars of value.” That’s just not my view. So I’ll make another prediction. It is hard for me to see that there won’t be trillions of dollars in revenue before 2030. I can construct a plausible world. It takes maybe three years. That would be the end of what I think it’s plausible. Like in 2028, we get the real “country of geniuses in the data center”. The revenue’s going into the low hundreds of billions by 2028, and then the country of geniuses accelerates it to trillions. We’re basically on the slow end of diffusion. It takes two years to get to the trillions. That would be the world where it takes until 2030. I suspect even composing the technical exponential and diffusion exponential, we’ll get there before 2030. So you laid out a model where Anthropic makes profit because it seems like fundamentally we’re in a compute-constrained world. So eventually we keep growing compute—…

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