Dario Amodei: belief

Transcript context

…I want to, at the same time, ask about maybe some rabbit holes. Wouldn’t you expect that if you had to train on longer context length, that would mean that you’re able to get less samples in for the same amount of compute? Maybe it’s not worth diving deep on that. I want to get an answer to the bigger picture question. I don’t feel a preference for a human editor that’s been working for me for six months versus an AI that’s been working with me for six months, what year do you predict that that will be the case? My guess for that is there’s a lot of problems where basically we can do this when we have the “country of geniuses in a data center”. My picture for that, if you made me guess, is one to two years, maybe one to three years. It’s really hard to tell. I have a strong view—99%, 95%—that all this will happen in 10 years. I think that’s just a super safe bet. I have a hunch—this is more like a 50/50 thing—that it’s going to be more like one to two, maybe more like one to three. So one to three years. Country of geniuses, and the slightly less economically valuable task of editing videos.…

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