Public evidence record
Published podcast speaker
Claim ledger
35 transcript-backed records
01 / belief
“There was the whole spat recently where I think Gavin Baker was like, “Dario believes that there’s only going to be one company in the world.”
02 / belief
“I think most compute will still continue to transact at sub-$20 billion a gigawatt.”
03 / belief
“As we get to the end of the decade, we think something like half of the capacity that’s being added will be behind the meter.”
04 / belief
“Take a gigawatt of Nvidia’s Rubin chips. Rubin is announced at GTC, I believe the week this podcast goes live.”
05 / belief
“I think going back to the earlier view that if the models are so powerful, the value of a GPU goes up over time, right now only OpenAI and Anthropic have that viewpoint.”
06 / belief
“There are a couple of companies and I think that could be a big disruption to the industry beyond EUV.”
07 / belief
“I think there are a couple factors here. ASML has not decided to just go YOLO, let’s expand capacity as fast as possible.”
08 / belief
“I think actually Google’s interface is sometimes nice, but it’s also they don’t care about anyone besides their top customers.”
09 / belief
“All of these things can go happen faster. And so I think software and then the other domain is industrial, chemical, mechanical engineers suck at coding just generally.”
10 / belief
“I think four of Amazon’s top five revenue products, margin products like gross profit products are all database-related products like Redshift and all these things.”
11 / belief
“I think everyone has benefited regardless because the data’s on the internet. And therefore, it’s in your per training now.”
12 / belief
“I think there’s a couple factors here. One is that they do have model architecture innovations.”
13 / belief
“I think to some extent, we have capabilities that hit a certain point where any one person could say, “Oh, okay, if I can leverage those capabilities for X amount of time, this is AGI, call it ’27, ’28.”
14 / belief
“I would say there’s two articles in this one that I could show maybe graphics that might be interesting for you to pull up.”
15 / belief
“I think the unsung heroes are the cooling in electrical systems which are just glossed over.”
16 / belief
“China will win because of these restrictions long-term, unless AI does something in the short-term, which I believe AI will make massive changes to society in the medium, short-term.”
17 / belief
“Better lesson, right? The question is, I think, when not if, because the rate of progress is so fast.”
18 / belief
“I think if you look at every layer of the compute stack, whether it goes from lithography and etch all the way to fabrication, to optics, to networking, to power, to transformers, to cooling, to a networking, and you just go on up and up and up and up the stack, even air conditioners for data centers are innovating.”
19 / belief
“I think, and there were a lot of false narratives, which is like, “Hey, these guys are spending billions on models,” and they’re not spending billions on models.”
20 / belief
“I think one of the few things you can purchase ironically, is a Texas Instruments graphing calculator because they actually manufacture in Texas.”
21 / belief
“I think the thing that’s really important about these mega cluster buildouts is they’re completely unprecedented in scale.”
22 / belief
“Of what GenAI can do to society, but it was very clear, I think, to at least National Security Council and those sort of folks, that this was where the world is headed, this cold war that’s happening.”
23 / belief
“I think there is one aspect to note though is that there is the general ability for that to transfer across different types of runs.”
24 / belief
“I think others will keep raising money because the returns from it are going to be eventually huge once we have AGI.”
25 / belief
“I think when you look at the Chinese labs, Huawei has a lab, Moonshot AI, there’s a couple other labs out there that are really close with the government, and then there’s labs like Alibaba and DeepSeek, which are not close with the government.”
26 / belief
“Generally, humans have positive impacts on the world, at least societally, but it’s possible for individual humans to have such negative impacts. And AGI, at least as I think the labs define it, which is not a runaway sentient thing, but rather just something that can do a lot of tasks really efficiently amplifies the capabilities of someone causing extreme damage.”
27 / belief
“You should tell that story, actually, about the TSMC guy that went to Samsung and SMIC and all that. I think you should tell that story.”
28 / belief
“I think more reasonably, it will be like the total summation of the flops that you deliver to the model across pre-training, post-training, synthetic data for that pre-training and post-training data, as well as some of the inference time compute efficiencies.”
29 / belief
“You have multiple, at least five, I believe GB200 100K clusters being built by Microsoft/OpenAItheir partners for them.”
30 / belief
“You could just destroy every GPU in a data center if you want if you just fuck with the grid, pretty easily, I think.”
31 / belief
“Next year, 300-500k depending on whether it's one site or many. 300-700k I think is the upper bound of that.”
32 / belief
“We think, with fairly high accuracy, that there are five regions that they're connecting together, which comprises many data centers.”
33 / belief
“I think Jon and I could communicate to the point where you even wouldn't know what we're talking about.”
34 / belief
“Like, you look at what Tsinghua University is doing in China, actually, they open sourced their model to I think the largest like by parameter count, at least open source models.”
35 / belief
“I think with AI, especially like how scaling laws are going, it's like incredibly important for infrastructure is like so much more important. And then like when you just think about software cost, right, like the cost structure of it, there was always a bigger component of R&D and like SAS businesses, you know, all over SF, all these SAS businesses did crazy good because, you know, they just start as they grow and then all of a sudden they're so freaking profitable for each incremental new customer.”