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The State of Silicon and the GPU Poors - with Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis

17 Nov 2023 14 published claims 3 attributable people

Speakers in the public record

Claim mix

evaluation 5belief 3uncertainty 2prediction 2recommendation 1preference 1

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The useful parts, with receipts.

14 published records

01 / belief

I think the startup's point is the most interesting, right? You mentioned companies that are GPU poor, they raise a lot of money, and there's a lot of startups out there that are GPU poor and did not raise a lot of money.

“I think the startup's point is the most interesting, right? You mentioned companies that are GPU poor, they raise a lot of money, and there's a lot of startups out there that are GPU poor and did not raise a lot of money.”
Speaker
Alessio Fanelli
Publisher
Latent Space

02 / belief

Like, you look at what Tsinghua University is doing in China, actually, they open sourced their model to I think the largest like by parameter count, at least open source models.

“Like, you look at what Tsinghua University is doing in China, actually, they open sourced their model to I think the largest like by parameter count, at least open source models.”
Speaker
Dylan Patel
Publisher
Latent Space

05 / belief

I think with AI, especially like how scaling laws are going, it's like incredibly important for infrastructure is like so much more important. And then like when you just think about software cost, right, like the cost structure of it, there was always a bigger component of R&D and like SAS businesses, you know, all over SF, all these SAS businesses did crazy good because, you know, they just start as they grow and then all of a sudden they're so freaking profitable for each incremental new customer.

“I think with AI, especially like how scaling laws are going, it's like incredibly important for infrastructure is like so much more important. And then like when you just think about software cost, right, like the cost structure of it, there was always a bigger component of R&D and like SAS businesses, you know, all over SF, all these SAS businesses did crazy good because, you know, they just start as they grow and then all of a sudden they're so freaking profitable for each incremental new customer.”
Speaker
Dylan Patel
Publisher
Latent Space

06 / evaluation

Building a bigger and better model every, you know, every few months. And I don't know how Apple gets on that train, but you know, at the same time, there's no company that has more powerful distribution, right?

“Building a bigger and better model every, you know, every few months. And I don't know how Apple gets on that train, but you know, at the same time, there's no company that has more powerful distribution, right?”
Speaker
Dylan Patel
Publisher
Latent Space

09 / evaluation

Their chips are not as good, or if they are, even though, you know, I mentioned Intel and AMD's chips are better, that's only because they're throwing more money at the problem kind of, right?

“Their chips are not as good, or if they are, even though, you know, I mentioned Intel and AMD's chips are better, that's only because they're throwing more money at the problem kind of, right?”
Speaker
Dylan Patel
Publisher
Latent Space

10 / evaluation

I mean, it was good. They were doing good, and NVIDIA bought them, you know, in 19, I believe, or 18, but Broadcom has been number one in networking for a decade plus, and Google partnered with them on making the TPU, right?

“I mean, it was good. They were doing good, and NVIDIA bought them, you know, in 19, I believe, or 18, but Broadcom has been number one in networking for a decade plus, and Google partnered with them on making the TPU, right?”
Speaker
Dylan Patel
Publisher
Latent Space

11 / recommendation

Unless you're fine tuning for on-device use, I think fine tuning current existing models, especially the smaller ones is a useless waste of time because the cost of inference is actually much cheaper than you think once you achieve good MBU and you batch at a decent size, which any successful business in the cloud is going to achieve, you know, and then two, fine tuning like people like, oh, you know, this 7 billion parameter model, if you fine tune it on a data set is almost as good as 3.

“Unless you're fine tuning for on-device use, I think fine tuning current existing models, especially the smaller ones is a useless waste of time because the cost of inference is actually much cheaper than you think once you achieve good MBU and you batch at a decent size, which any successful business in the cloud is going to achieve, you know, and then two, fine tuning like people like, oh, you know, this 7 billion parameter model, if you fine tune it on a data set is almost as good as 3.”
Speaker
Dylan Patel
Publisher
Latent Space

12 / preference

Some people would argue lower, right? But at the very least, you need to achieve human reading level speeds and probably a little bit faster, because we like their skin, to have a usable model for chatbot style applications.

“Some people would argue lower, right? But at the very least, you need to achieve human reading level speeds and probably a little bit faster, because we like their skin, to have a usable model for chatbot style applications.”
Speaker
Dylan Patel
Publisher
Latent Space

13 / evaluation

I think that one's really critical because it explains Google's infrastructure quite a bit from networking through chips, through all that sort of history of the TPU a little bit.

“I think that one's really critical because it explains Google's infrastructure quite a bit from networking through chips, through all that sort of history of the TPU a little bit.”
Speaker
Dylan Patel
Publisher
Latent Space

14 / prediction

So in training, everyone just talks about MFU, right? But then on inference, right, which I think is one LLM inference will be bigger than training or multimodal, whatever, bubble inference will be bigger than training, probably next year, in fact, at least in terms of GPUs deployed.

“So in training, everyone just talks about MFU, right? But then on inference, right, which I think is one LLM inference will be bigger than training or multimodal, whatever, bubble inference will be bigger than training, probably next year, in fact, at least in terms of GPUs deployed.”
Speaker
Dylan Patel
Publisher
Latent Space
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