Dylan Patel: belief

Transcript context

…I used to cover semis at Belyasny as well. And it was for a long time, it was just the mobile cycle. And then a little bit of PCs, but like not that much. And then maybe some cloud stuff, you know, like public cloud, you know, semiconductor stuff. But it really wasn't anything until this wave. And I was actually listening to you on one of the previous podcasts that you've done. And it was surprising that high-performance computing also kind of didn't really take off. Like AI is just the first form of high-performance computing that worked. One of the theses I've had for a long time that I think people haven't really caught on, but it's coming to fruition now is that the largest tech companies in the world, their software is important, but actually having and operating a very efficient infrastructure is incredibly important. And so, you know, people talk about, you know, hey, Amazon is great, AWS is great because yes, it is easy to use and they've built all these things. But behind the scenes, they've done a lot on the infrastructure that is super custom that Microsoft, Azure and Google Cloud just don't even match in terms of efficiency. If you think about the cost to rent out SSD space, so the cost to rent, you know, offer database service on top of that, obviously, a cost to rent out a certain level of CPU performance. Amazon has a massive advantage there. And likewise, like Google spent all this time doing that in AI, right, with their TPUs and infrastructure there and an optical switches and all this sort of stuff. And so in the past, it wasn't immediately obvious. I think with AI, especially like how scaling laws are going, it's like incredibly important for infrastructure is like so much more important. And then like when you just think about software cost, right, like the cost structure of it, there was always a bigger component of R&D and like SAS businesses, you know, all over SF, all these SAS businesses did crazy good because, you know, they just start as they grow and then all of a sudden they're so freaking profitable for each incremental new customer. And AI software looks like it's going to be very different, in my opinion, right? Like the R&D cost is much lower in terms of people, but the cost of goods sold in terms of actually operating the service, I think will be much higher. And so in that same sense, infrastructure matters a ton. And I think you wrote once that training costs effectively don't matter.…

Stored transcript either side of the excerpt. The highlighted words are the published quote; the surrounding text is unedited source, never generated.