Dylan Patel: belief

Transcript context

…There’s some research that shows that the distribution is actually the limiting factor. So language models haven’t yet made misinformation particularly change the equation there. The internet is still ongoing. I think there’s a blog, AI Snake Oil and some of my friends at Princeton that write on this stuff. So there is research. It’s a default that everyone assumes. And I would’ve thought the same thing, is that misinformation doesn’t get far worse with language models. I think in terms of internet posts and things that people have been measuring, it hasn’t been a exponential increase or something extremely measurable and things you’re talking about with voice calls and stuff like that, it could be in modalities that are harder to measure. So it’s something that it’s too soon to tell in terms of… I think that’s political instability via the web is very… It’s monitored by a lot of researchers to see what’s happening. I think that… You’re asking about the AGI thing. If you’re making me give a year, I’m going to be like, “Okay, I have AI CEOs saying this. They’ve been saying two years for a while. I think that there are people like Dario at Anthropic, the CEO, has thought about this so deeply. I need to take their word seriously, but also understand that they have different incentives.” So I would be like, “Add a few years to that.” Which is how you get something similar to 2030 or a little after 2030. I think to some extent, we have capabilities that hit a certain point where any one person could say, “Oh, okay, if I can leverage those capabilities for X amount of time, this is AGI, call it ’27, ’28. ” But then the cost of actually operating that capability- Yeah, this was going to be my point.…

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