Dylan Patel: belief

Transcript context

…We are both NVIDIA bulls here, I would say. And in some ways, the market response is reasonable. NVIDIA’s biggest customers in the US are major tech companies and they’re spending a ton on AI. And if a simple interpretation of DeepSeek is you can get really good models without spending as much on AI. So in that capacity it’s like, “Oh, maybe these big tech companies won’t need to spend as much in AI and go down.” The actual thing that happened is much more complex where there’s social factors, where there’s the rising in the app store, the social contagion that is happening. And then I think some of it is just like, I don’t trade, I don’t know anything about financial markets, but it builds up over the weekend, the social pressure, where it’s like if it was during the week and there was multiple days of trading when this was really becoming, but it comes on the weekend and then everybody wants to sell, and then that is a social contagion. I think, and there were a lot of false narratives, which is like, “Hey, these guys are spending billions on models,” and they’re not spending billions on models. No one spent more than a billion dollars on a model that’s released publicly. GPT-4 was a couple hundred million and then they’ve reduced the cost with 4o, 4 Turbo, 4o, right? But billion dollar model runs are coming and this concludes pre-training and post-training, right? And then the other number is like, “Hey, DeepSeek didn’t include everything.” They didn’t include a lot of the cost goes to research and all this sort of stuff. A lot of the cost goes to inference. A lot of the cost goes to post-training. None of these things were factored. Research, salaries, all these things are counted in the “billions of dollars” that OpenAI is spending, but they weren’t counted in the, “Hey, $6 million, $5 million that DeepSeek spent.” So, there’s a bit of misunderstanding of what these numbers are, and then there’s also an element of… NVIDIA has just been a straight line up and there’s been so many different narratives that have been trying to push down NVIDIA. I don’t say push down NVIDIA stock. Everyone is looking for a reason to sell or to be worried. It was Blackwell delays, right? Their GPU, every two weeks there’s a new report about their GPUs being delayed. There’s the whole thing about scaling laws ending, right? It’s so ironic- It lasted a month.…

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