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Published · transcript-backed

Dylan Patel: belief

13 Mar 2026 Dwarkesh Podcast Dylan Patel — Deep dive on the 3 big bottlenecks to scaling AI compute

“As we get to the end of the decade, we think something like half of the capacity that’s being added will be behind the meter.”

— Dylan Patel

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Everything needed to verify it.

Speaker
Dylan Patel
Attribution
Verified speaker
Claim type
belief
Recorded
13 Mar 2026
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

Transcript context

…But that’s 200 gigawatts, if that hypothetically happens. Just from the different sources of gas generation you mentioned—the different kinds of engines and turbines—combined, how many gigawatts could they unlock by the end of the decade? We’re tracking this in our data. There are over 16 different manufacturers of power-generating things just from gas alone. Yes, there are only three turbine manufacturers for combined-cycle, but we’re tracking 16 different vendors, and we have all of their orders. It turns out there are hundreds of gigawatts of orders to various data centers. As we get to the end of the decade, we think something like half of the capacity that’s being added will be behind the meter. Behind the meter is almost always more expensive than grid-connected, but there are just a lot of problems with getting grid-connected: permits and interconnection queues and all this sort of stuff. So even though it’s more expensive, people are doing behind the meter. What they’re doing behind the meter ranges widely. It could be reciprocating engines, ship engines, or aeroderivatives. It could be combined-cycle, although combined-cycle is not that great for behind the meter. It could be Bloom Energy fuel cells, or solar plus battery. It could be any of these things. And you’re saying any of these individually could do tens of gigawatts?…

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