Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedDylan Patel: belief
13 Mar 2026 Dwarkesh Podcast Dylan Patel — Deep dive on the 3 big bottlenecks to scaling AI compute
“I think there are a couple factors here. ASML has not decided to just go YOLO, let’s expand capacity as fast as possible.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Dylan Patel
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 13 Mar 2026
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…You say we’re producing 60 of these machines this year and then 70, 80 over subsequent years. What would happen if ASML just decided to double its CapEx or triple its CapEx? What is preventing them from producing more than 100 in 2030? Why are you so confident that even five years out, you can be relatively sure what their production will be? I think there are a couple factors here. ASML has not decided to just go YOLO, let’s expand capacity as fast as possible. In general, the semiconductor supply chain has not. It’s lived through the booms and busts, and we can talk a bit more about it. Basically some players have recently woken up, but in general no one really sees demand for 200 gigawatts a year of AI chips, or trillions of dollars of spend a year in the semiconductor supply chain. They’re not AI-pilled. They’re not AGI-pilled. We’re going to get to a trillion dollars this year.…
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