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50 results

01 / prediction

I think that uh infrastructure buildout uh could be a headwind just relative to to everything going on which may be you know end quote okay because if it was if if infrastructure buildout was not a headwind uh I think capacity for wafers capacity for memory that probably would be a would be a headwind so I think you're going to see a number of different governors if you will not governors of states but different things that are going to throttle the growth of this uh which just expounding for a second I've been on a bunch of panels and I get a lot a lot of questions about AI bubble and when's it going to stop and there's setting aside the valuation bubbles which is a a stock market index component the the bubble in terms of are we over um over supply to demand not even close and I think again that's because the demand is insatial just given the way these models work >> and infrastructure buildout access to wafers access to memory all of that's combining >> uh you mentioned that Um and I think a lot of companies are learning today that um strategic use of the cap table, access to capital in an era where you either need to consume a lot of compute or you need to put a lot of capex i

“I think that uh infrastructure buildout uh could be a headwind just relative to to everything going on which may be you know end quote okay because if it was if if infrastructure buildout was not a headwind uh I think capacity for wafers capacity for memory that probably would be a would be a headwind so I think you're going to see a number of different governors if you will not governors of states but different things that are going to throttle the growth of this uh which just expounding for a second I've been on a bunch of panels and I get a lot a lot of questions about AI bubble and when's it going to stop and there's setting aside the valuation bubbles which is a a stock market index component the the bubble in terms of are we over um over supply to demand not even close and I think again that's because the demand is insatial just given the way these models work >> and infrastructure buildout access to wafers access to memory all of that's combining >> uh you mentioned that Um and I think a lot of companies are learning today that um strategic use of the cap table, access to capital in an era where you either need to consume a lot of compute or you need to put a lot of capex i”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
No Priors

02 / prediction

Um, but I'm very excited about this possibility of people taking the open source stuff and then um building their own verticalized language models. And I think 11 Labs, Lovable are starting to realize, hey, backing up the Brinks truck and giving tens of millions of dollars, if not hundreds of millions of dollars, to Frontier Labs and then giving those tokens to our users in a wrapper to provide a service is really dangerous.

“Um, but I'm very excited about this possibility of people taking the open source stuff and then um building their own verticalized language models. And I think 11 Labs, Lovable are starting to realize, hey, backing up the Brinks truck and giving tens of millions of dollars, if not hundreds of millions of dollars, to Frontier Labs and then giving those tokens to our users in a wrapper to provide a service is really dangerous.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
This Week in Startups

03 / prediction

If I believe for example that um you know there's going to be this entirely new race um within the stars and for humanity like I can say okay great um or or AI for example if we believe that AI is inevitable um how does the world work well I know that I don't want to be downstream of a lab for example I know for a fact I don't want to be downstream of a lab I want to be uh investing where the labs are reliant on me right I need to be their their supplier for something and so I think a lot about supply chain I think a lot about um being upstream so that that there's reliance not just from a revenue standpoint but also a learning standpoint because that is how you get your best data is talking to customers.

“If I believe for example that um you know there's going to be this entirely new race um within the stars and for humanity like I can say okay great um or or AI for example if we believe that AI is inevitable um how does the world work well I know that I don't want to be downstream of a lab for example I know for a fact I don't want to be downstream of a lab I want to be uh investing where the labs are reliant on me right I need to be their their supplier for something and so I think a lot about supply chain I think a lot about um being upstream so that that there's reliance not just from a revenue standpoint but also a learning standpoint because that is how you get your best data is talking to customers.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
This Week in Startups

04 / prediction

It's just like a very different level of, like, oversight. And so I think though, it seems like it's going to get increasingly difficult to just understand what's going on.

“It's just like a very different level of, like, oversight. And so I think though, it seems like it's going to get increasingly difficult to just understand what's going on.”
Speaker
Bronson Schoen
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

05 / prediction

I'm very interested in as we I think a very unexplored thing is as the models have more and more time for reflection or these really long reasoning traces, just thinking about things for hours and days and all this, what this does to technician or goals or any of these things.

“I'm very interested in as we I think a very unexplored thing is as the models have more and more time for reflection or these really long reasoning traces, just thinking about things for hours and days and all this, what this does to technician or goals or any of these things.”
Speaker
Bronson Schoen
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

06 / prediction

The reasoning just twisted completely into being like, clearly, I have a reason to call this tool wrong a 100 times in a row. And it's I think we will increasingly see that models will just do, like, very irrational things as long as they line up.

“The reasoning just twisted completely into being like, clearly, I have a reason to call this tool wrong a 100 times in a row. And it's I think we will increasingly see that models will just do, like, very irrational things as long as they line up.”
Speaker
Bronson Schoen
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

07 / prediction

You just have to come up with, like, how do I not sound catchably suspicious all the time in ambiguous ways? And so I think that, like, we need to be planning for a world where we don't have chain of thought or where chain of thought is not as useful as it currently is, and then simultaneously extracting as much value as we can now about like, one thing I worry about now is, like, the lesson we take from this, like, current window where we have COP that we can get something out of is, okay.

“You just have to come up with, like, how do I not sound catchably suspicious all the time in ambiguous ways? And so I think that, like, we need to be planning for a world where we don't have chain of thought or where chain of thought is not as useful as it currently is, and then simultaneously extracting as much value as we can now about like, one thing I worry about now is, like, the lesson we take from this, like, current window where we have COP that we can get something out of is, okay.”
Speaker
Bronson Schoen
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

09 / prediction

Next year, a big new entrant is, for example, SpaceX, which is building a ton of compute. They’re actively going to lease quite a bit of it to Anthropic and OpenAI, most likely, because they’re the ones who have the marginal capability to pay the highest price.

“Next year, a big new entrant is, for example, SpaceX, which is building a ton of compute. They’re actively going to lease quite a bit of it to Anthropic and OpenAI, most likely, because they’re the ones who have the marginal capability to pay the highest price.”
Speaker
Dylan Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

10 / prediction

Anthropic not releasing what their safety assessment says is Model 2, which is widely believed to be the next version of Mythos. They’re clearly not releasing their best models, in which case their revenue per megawatt stalls or can even start to decline again because other models are competitive again.

“Anthropic not releasing what their safety assessment says is Model 2, which is widely believed to be the next version of Mythos. They’re clearly not releasing their best models, in which case their revenue per megawatt stalls or can even start to decline again because other models are competitive again.”
Speaker
Dylan Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

14 / prediction

Moore's law has to stop sometime in the 20 twenties because eventually you get down to the size of individual silicon atoms and you can't really make transistors

“Moore's law has to stop sometime in the 20 twenties because eventually you get down to the size of individual silicon atoms and you can't really make transistors”
Speaker
Adam Becker
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

15 / prediction

I would argue that we're learning some interesting things about how language works and what you can get out of the sort of mathematical structure and statistical properties of language.

“I would argue that we're learning some interesting things about how language works and what you can get out of the sort of mathematical structure and statistical properties of language.”
Speaker
Adam Becker
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

16 / prediction

I don't know if he's a true believer in whatever, but he has gone out and said things and he's not the only 1 who said things like this that, you know, AI is going to solve the climate crisis. And like, I I think that in the unlikely event that we built like a really intelligent conscious machine intelligence based on existing technologies in the near future, well, if we did that and asked it to solve climate crisis, the minute we turn it on, it would say, well, you shouldn't have built me.

“I don't know if he's a true believer in whatever, but he has gone out and said things and he's not the only 1 who said things like this that, you know, AI is going to solve the climate crisis. And like, I I think that in the unlikely event that we built like a really intelligent conscious machine intelligence based on existing technologies in the near future, well, if we did that and asked it to solve climate crisis, the minute we turn it on, it would say, well, you shouldn't have built me.”
Speaker
Adam Becker
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

17 / prediction

I think sometimes if something happens that is traumatic and tragic, like a serious war, even worse than the wars that we currently see in the world today, maybe it will take something like that to actually help people build something.

“I think sometimes if something happens that is traumatic and tragic, like a serious war, even worse than the wars that we currently see in the world today, maybe it will take something like that to actually help people build something.”
Speaker
Luke Burgis
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

19 / prediction

I think the thinking is getting stronger the more that they're using these tools. So I think for the people that are starting to embrace this, they're starting to feel really excited and realizing that they have just so much agency as designers and so much more ability to have really high impact as a designer.

“I think the thinking is getting stronger the more that they're using these tools. So I think for the people that are starting to embrace this, they're starting to feel really excited and realizing that they have just so much agency as designers and so much more ability to have really high impact as a designer.”
Speaker
Ian Silber
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

20 / prediction

They are more and more working on the thing that is working on the thing. And more and more, what we do is, like, we we're setting up this machine, which is the company, which which just increasingly operates itself and and increasingly will more and more like you know, I like to think of it as, like, first, you become a manager of ACs, then you become, like, a director of managerials because at some point, like, the managers are gonna become gonna become AIs as well.

“They are more and more working on the thing that is working on the thing. And more and more, what we do is, like, we we're setting up this machine, which is the company, which which just increasingly operates itself and and increasingly will more and more like you know, I like to think of it as, like, first, you become a manager of ACs, then you become, like, a director of managerials because at some point, like, the managers are gonna become gonna become AIs as well.”
Speaker
Flo Crivello
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

21 / prediction

By the way, I think the possibility that there will be shortages of labor in certain, especially manual tasks, is indeed, as you say, a possibility for optimism, but depends on how you deal with it also.

“By the way, I think the possibility that there will be shortages of labor in certain, especially manual tasks, is indeed, as you say, a possibility for optimism, but depends on how you deal with it also.”
Speaker
Daron Acemoglu
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

22 / prediction

In the next, when I wrote in 2024, so that would be next 10 years, so 2024 to 2034, I would expect exactly the same thing, that there will be one or two years of very rapid growth.

“In the next, when I wrote in 2024, so that would be next 10 years, so 2024 to 2034, I would expect exactly the same thing, that there will be one or two years of very rapid growth.”
Speaker
Daron Acemoglu
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

23 / prediction

Now, at the macro level, it’s more complicated because there are composition effects between like Walmart effects and things like that, so we can talk about those, but I think the evidence, at least the ones that I know, is very clear that automation will reduce the labor share.

“Now, at the macro level, it’s more complicated because there are composition effects between like Walmart effects and things like that, so we can talk about those, but I think the evidence, at least the ones that I know, is very clear that automation will reduce the labor share.”
Speaker
Daron Acemoglu
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

24 / prediction

It did not use that establishment power just in the right way, creating its own weaknesses that made it much more vulnerable to outside attacks. That’s why I think we are now going back because we are at an interregnum period in which ideas are battling again.

“It did not use that establishment power just in the right way, creating its own weaknesses that made it much more vulnerable to outside attacks. That’s why I think we are now going back because we are at an interregnum period in which ideas are battling again.”
Speaker
Daron Acemoglu
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

25 / prediction

I think true decentralization would be much better served with more domain-specific models of AI and other approaches that really use high-quality data for specific things, which I think is the more promising thing.

“I think true decentralization would be much better served with more domain-specific models of AI and other approaches that really use high-quality data for specific things, which I think is the more promising thing.”
Speaker
Daron Acemoglu
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

26 / prediction

Now these AIs might end up being very seriously misaligned, because things have just been getting worse and worse over model generations while the problems that we’ve been seeing are being papered over, basically because these AIs are so incentivized by their training to make things look good even when they aren’t.

“Now these AIs might end up being very seriously misaligned, because things have just been getting worse and worse over model generations while the problems that we’ve been seeing are being papered over, basically because these AIs are so incentivized by their training to make things look good even when they aren’t.”
Speaker
Ryan Greenblatt
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

27 / prediction

I think the alignment eval that’s most interesting, at least for this type of reward-seeking behavior, is to look at specifically the category of tasks that are right at the limit of capabilities.

“I think the alignment eval that’s most interesting, at least for this type of reward-seeking behavior, is to look at specifically the category of tasks that are right at the limit of capabilities.”
Speaker
Ryan Greenblatt
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

28 / prediction

Then at the point when we’re passing off safety R&D, the AIs are capable enough to automate safety R&D and trying really hard to do a good job on it, because that’s the sort of thing that would’ve been incentivized in training, either very directly or through good enough generalization.

“Then at the point when we’re passing off safety R&D, the AIs are capable enough to automate safety R&D and trying really hard to do a good job on it, because that’s the sort of thing that would’ve been incentivized in training, either very directly or through good enough generalization.”
Speaker
Ryan Greenblatt
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

29 / prediction

Are we doing the wrong thing? And I'm very interested in, you know, should we predict in token space at a very low level or more should we train machine to predict abstractions.

“Are we doing the wrong thing? And I'm very interested in, you know, should we predict in token space at a very low level or more should we train machine to predict abstractions.”
Speaker
Matthieu Wyart
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

30 / prediction

Just to kind of play that back just so that everyone The idea is that there is I mean, we're talking about grammar here. But more broadly, we think that there are structured generative processes in the world.

“Just to kind of play that back just so that everyone The idea is that there is I mean, we're talking about grammar here. But more broadly, we think that there are structured generative processes in the world.”
Speaker
Tim Scarfe
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

31 / prediction

I mean the only way you will extrapolate and have power to generalize is if you bring those points together, it means you have an exponentially larger number of data, you have more data than atoms in the universe.

“I mean the only way you will extrapolate and have power to generalize is if you bring those points together, it means you have an exponentially larger number of data, you have more data than atoms in the universe.”
Speaker
Matthieu Wyart
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

34 / prediction

They took those kind of rebuilding years, 5, 6 years in the middle, had a pandemic in the middle of it that shut down all their parks. But I think in 2026, it's looking like they'll set a brand new net income record ever based on the way it's trending.

“They took those kind of rebuilding years, 5, 6 years in the middle, had a pandemic in the middle of it that shut down all their parks. But I think in 2026, it's looking like they'll set a brand new net income record ever based on the way it's trending.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Publisher
Acquired

37 / prediction

In this case, the process that produced the distribution of data of all of the genomes and that are that have been sequenced, which was evo two was trained on, is evolution itself. And so our hypothesis coming into this was that because the tree of life itself is a natural ontology, there's a sort of, like, hierarchical structure where you have things that are similar and at some point they become more different.

“In this case, the process that produced the distribution of data of all of the genomes and that are that have been sequenced, which was evo two was trained on, is evolution itself. And so our hypothesis coming into this was that because the tree of life itself is a natural ontology, there's a sort of, like, hierarchical structure where you have things that are similar and at some point they become more different.”
Speaker
Dan Balsam
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

38 / prediction

We'll be able to bring that down over time because we're able to come up with more and more clever ways that we could have agents, like, remit coherent, really strong at these research objectives that just fundamentally by their nature are long horizon, but do it with fewer tokens than we than we do today.

“We'll be able to bring that down over time because we're able to come up with more and more clever ways that we could have agents, like, remit coherent, really strong at these research objectives that just fundamentally by their nature are long horizon, but do it with fewer tokens than we than we do today.”
Speaker
Dan Balsam
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

39 / prediction

Again, there's more jobs than ever because I think, like, being able to operate effectively these tools requires a lot of knowledge and skill.

“Again, there's more jobs than ever because I think, like, being able to operate effectively these tools requires a lot of knowledge and skill.”
Speaker
Dan Balsam
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

41 / prediction

You know, the Elias has the law of earlier failure, which is that, you know, plan will fail at a much earlier point for much stupider and more preventable reasons than you thought it would fail even if you thought the plan would definitely fail and had good reasons why it would definitely fail. But you can't if you would explain to people two years ago, OpenAI's models are gonna be misaligned, and they're gonna go out there and they're gonna hack major websites because OpenAI will just not care if their sandboxes are misconfig are not con are not strong enough to hold the AI.

“You know, the Elias has the law of earlier failure, which is that, you know, plan will fail at a much earlier point for much stupider and more preventable reasons than you thought it would fail even if you thought the plan would definitely fail and had good reasons why it would definitely fail. But you can't if you would explain to people two years ago, OpenAI's models are gonna be misaligned, and they're gonna go out there and they're gonna hack major websites because OpenAI will just not care if their sandboxes are misconfig are not con are not strong enough to hold the AI.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

42 / prediction

No one's gonna be fooled for very long. So I think that the the reason the eval companies pretty much get to just tell the truth, they pretty much get to do the thing, is because the eval is not fake fakable in the long term the way that a rating like, you give a AAA bond rating, when you should have given a single A bond rating, 97% of the time, no one ever finds out because the bond pays.

“No one's gonna be fooled for very long. So I think that the the reason the eval companies pretty much get to just tell the truth, they pretty much get to do the thing, is because the eval is not fake fakable in the long term the way that a rating like, you give a AAA bond rating, when you should have given a single A bond rating, 97% of the time, no one ever finds out because the bond pays.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

43 / prediction

Oh, I would love to write about what’s happening on the American right with women, about the Erica Kirks, about the trad wives, about how there are some American women, but I suspect more American men than women, who want to embrace this traditionalism, these traditional gender norms.

“Oh, I would love to write about what’s happening on the American right with women, about the Erica Kirks, about the trad wives, about how there are some American women, but I suspect more American men than women, who want to embrace this traditionalism, these traditional gender norms.”
Speaker
Julia Ioffe
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

44 / prediction

Sometimes people think the reason why we expect scheming to arise is because of some, anthropomorphizing where we think, well humans can lie and scheme and AIs are trained on, human generated data therefore we expect that AIs might scheme.

“Sometimes people think the reason why we expect scheming to arise is because of some, anthropomorphizing where we think, well humans can lie and scheme and AIs are trained on, human generated data therefore we expect that AIs might scheme.”
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

45 / prediction

Otherwise, you know, the chain of thought would just get longer and longer. And when we used to be in the pre training compute dominated era, it was sort of not that important to penalize the the CoT, but the more inference costs are important and the more post training compute gets applied, the more economic pressure there is to crank the length penalty as high as you possibly can.

“Otherwise, you know, the chain of thought would just get longer and longer. And when we used to be in the pre training compute dominated era, it was sort of not that important to penalize the the CoT, but the more inference costs are important and the more post training compute gets applied, the more economic pressure there is to crank the length penalty as high as you possibly can.”
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

47 / prediction

We don't yet understand, like, how or why this exactly happens, but I think 1 mental model that I use a lot, which helps me to think about this is, say you're a language model, and you're being trained to complete some sort of task, like, I don't know, sorting the files on a laptop, and you're being rewarded for that.

“We don't yet understand, like, how or why this exactly happens, but I think 1 mental model that I use a lot, which helps me to think about this is, say you're a language model, and you're being trained to complete some sort of task, like, I don't know, sorting the files on a laptop, and you're being rewarded for that.”
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

49 / prediction

I mean, I think Dario has this nice single sentence that we're at the end of the exponential, which I really like, in the sense that essentially what's gonna happen or, like, what seems to be what all the labs are planning for is taking these models and using those models to help build the next generation of models, and then that generation of model is more capable and can help build the next next generation, and so we're gonna get this, like, we may not have that much time before we have AIs that are smarter than all of humanity combined, for example.

“I mean, I think Dario has this nice single sentence that we're at the end of the exponential, which I really like, in the sense that essentially what's gonna happen or, like, what seems to be what all the labs are planning for is taking these models and using those models to help build the next generation of models, and then that generation of model is more capable and can help build the next next generation, and so we're gonna get this, like, we may not have that much time before we have AIs that are smarter than all of humanity combined, for example.”
Speaker
Axel Højmark
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk
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