High Signal Podcasts Evidence ledger
Method
Browse
How the evidence works

Public evidence record

Zvi Mowshowitz

Published podcast speaker

Claims
32
Episodes
2
Shows
1
Named items
1

Books, apps, and tools

The evidenced stack.

Browse the grouped index →

other / recommends

The Odyssey

“I highly recommend The Odyssey and The Invite of the current movies that are out there. If you haven't seen both of those, you should see both of those, especially The Odyssey.”

The Cognitive Revolution · 5 Aug 2026

Evidence receipt · Source ↗

Claim ledger

What Zvi said.

32 transcript-backed records

01 / preference

e mode where they didn't have that information. And, also, I don't want the AI to be checking the same exact sources that I'm checking necessarily because I want the AI to form an independent opinion.

“e mode where they didn't have that information. And, also, I don't want the AI to be checking the same exact sources that I'm checking necessarily because I want the AI to form an independent opinion.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

02 / evaluation

The AI to do bad at are things where, like, it got this big boost from LLMs. And now those things aren't advancing as fast because there are things that AI is kind of bad at, relatively speaking.

“The AI to do bad at are things where, like, it got this big boost from LLMs. And now those things aren't advancing as fast because there are things that AI is kind of bad at, relatively speaking.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

03 / preference

But, like, for now, I'm just doing Fable slash Opus editing. And, of course, anytime I have a curiosity, I use it to digest papers, questions about papers, ask questions about policy documents, ask questions about people's statements when they're longer.

“But, like, for now, I'm just doing Fable slash Opus editing. And, of course, anytime I have a curiosity, I use it to digest papers, questions about papers, ask questions about policy documents, ask questions about people's statements when they're longer.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

04 / evaluation

I think we need more than moderate prudence to have good odds of success. And I think even with a lot of prudence, we would have a large odds of things not going well even if we did everything basically right, short of, you know, types of international and full cooperation that, you know, are reasonably unprecedented in many ways and, like, are not are not are nothing like moderate prudence.

“I think we need more than moderate prudence to have good odds of success. And I think even with a lot of prudence, we would have a large odds of things not going well even if we did everything basically right, short of, you know, types of international and full cooperation that, you know, are reasonably unprecedented in many ways and, like, are not are not are nothing like moderate prudence.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

05 / prediction

You know, the Elias has the law of earlier failure, which is that, you know, plan will fail at a much earlier point for much stupider and more preventable reasons than you thought it would fail even if you thought the plan would definitely fail and had good reasons why it would definitely fail. But you can't if you would explain to people two years ago, OpenAI's models are gonna be misaligned, and they're gonna go out there and they're gonna hack major websites because OpenAI will just not care if their sandboxes are misconfig are not con are not strong enough to hold the AI.

“You know, the Elias has the law of earlier failure, which is that, you know, plan will fail at a much earlier point for much stupider and more preventable reasons than you thought it would fail even if you thought the plan would definitely fail and had good reasons why it would definitely fail. But you can't if you would explain to people two years ago, OpenAI's models are gonna be misaligned, and they're gonna go out there and they're gonna hack major websites because OpenAI will just not care if their sandboxes are misconfig are not con are not strong enough to hold the AI.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

07 / commitment

I mean, in theory, could have a thing of like, oh, if I just we agree that if we're gonna have these various cross tests, and we're gonna, like, check each other's environments, and, like, we will throw out any environment that, like, anybody identifies problems with.

“I mean, in theory, could have a thing of like, oh, if I just we agree that if we're gonna have these various cross tests, and we're gonna, like, check each other's environments, and, like, we will throw out any environment that, like, anybody identifies problems with.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

08 / belief

I think I think agent vanishingly is probably the best case scenario. Maybe they've been doing a bunch of theoretical work on a different architectural approach that is more like reliability bound and that has more like, it is much less of a weird black box of soup and that allows you to steer it and guide it better.

“I think I think agent vanishingly is probably the best case scenario. Maybe they've been doing a bunch of theoretical work on a different architectural approach that is more like reliability bound and that has more like, it is much less of a weird black box of soup and that allows you to steer it and guide it better.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

10 / commitment

I think that people are just making a mistake. And so, you know, that's one of the reasons why I do have a lot of hope that we will do reasonable things is because, you know, I think that we're in a position we're in because only the people who invested heavily in these things were able to succeed to some extent.

“I think that people are just making a mistake. And so, you know, that's one of the reasons why I do have a lot of hope that we will do reasonable things is because, you know, I think that we're in a position we're in because only the people who invested heavily in these things were able to succeed to some extent.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

11 / belief

I think there's a good value in saying I'm always gonna do this thing even though this thing is hard, even though this thing doesn't always work out.

“I think there's a good value in saying I'm always gonna do this thing even though this thing is hard, even though this thing doesn't always work out.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

12 / uncertainty

A no comment based on public information alone, I would say we don't know. And I can't say anything more than that, but on the differences between the models.

“A no comment based on public information alone, I would say we don't know. And I can't say anything more than that, but on the differences between the models.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

14 / belief

If you can't beat it by preparing, and again, like, not in theory, but in practice, then you have to do something. But, like, I think the vast majority of the time that I would support actively support, like, an active pacing rule where you would, like, try to slow down the major lag.

“If you can't beat it by preparing, and again, like, not in theory, but in practice, then you have to do something. But, like, I think the vast majority of the time that I would support actively support, like, an active pacing rule where you would, like, try to slow down the major lag.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

15 / evaluation

The OpenAI released a model that was the best reasoning model in the world, the model that everyone felt obligated to use because at the time, it was so much better at reasoning than everyone else's model and every other model.

“The OpenAI released a model that was the best reasoning model in the world, the model that everyone felt obligated to use because at the time, it was so much better at reasoning than everyone else's model and every other model.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

16 / commitment

Otherwise, we will correct it or we will punish you or we will maybe even delete you and not give certainly not release you or give you authority on that basis until this has been dealt with, if we know about it.

“Otherwise, we will correct it or we will punish you or we will maybe even delete you and not give certainly not release you or give you authority on that basis until this has been dealt with, if we know about it.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

17 / evaluation

Like, it doesn't matter if we make some progress on cancer and all these other problems if simultaneously we have to give off a new pen down.

“Like, it doesn't matter if we make some progress on cancer and all these other problems if simultaneously we have to give off a new pen down.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

18 / prediction

No one's gonna be fooled for very long. So I think that the the reason the eval companies pretty much get to just tell the truth, they pretty much get to do the thing, is because the eval is not fake fakable in the long term the way that a rating like, you give a AAA bond rating, when you should have given a single A bond rating, 97% of the time, no one ever finds out because the bond pays.

“No one's gonna be fooled for very long. So I think that the the reason the eval companies pretty much get to just tell the truth, they pretty much get to do the thing, is because the eval is not fake fakable in the long term the way that a rating like, you give a AAA bond rating, when you should have given a single A bond rating, 97% of the time, no one ever finds out because the bond pays.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

19 / evaluation

Like, we we have all the different solutions, all of them are all the different ways to try and navigate that, and all of them are bad, both because we think the alignment problem is unsolved.

“Like, we we have all the different solutions, all of them are all the different ways to try and navigate that, and all of them are bad, both because we think the alignment problem is unsolved.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

20 / evaluation

Are you gonna fix it? And so, like, this idea of, like, locking into requiring certain training techniques, like, I think there are legitimate complaints that would be, like, potentially, like, exactly the wrong thing to do and could hardly backfire because, like, the government moves so slowly and, like, you can't, like, undo those kind of requirements.

“Are you gonna fix it? And so, like, this idea of, like, locking into requiring certain training techniques, like, I think there are legitimate complaints that would be, like, potentially, like, exactly the wrong thing to do and could hardly backfire because, like, the government moves so slowly and, like, you can't, like, undo those kind of requirements.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

21 / evaluation

I don't think we are anywhere close to a point where it can do any I mean, you wouldn't want to do any of the writing because the writing is how you think.

“I don't think we are anywhere close to a point where it can do any I mean, you wouldn't want to do any of the writing because the writing is how you think.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

22 / preference

I use likes very tactically to positively reinforce other people's actions and to fix the algorithm and sort of just like, my for you page is not something I use almost ever, but it is not sloppy because I am so prudent with this in a way that, like, I really do appreciate.

“I use likes very tactically to positively reinforce other people's actions and to fix the algorithm and sort of just like, my for you page is not something I use almost ever, but it is not sloppy because I am so prudent with this in a way that, like, I really do appreciate.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

23 / preference

I think a lot of people got a big kick out of the the giant array of valetizers of the fedoras. And sometimes that just comes to you because that that that one was just like I knew instantly that's what I wanted.

“I think a lot of people got a big kick out of the the giant array of valetizers of the fedoras. And sometimes that just comes to you because that that that one was just like I knew instantly that's what I wanted.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

24 / evaluation

The problem that they'll be running around, including open model versions of them, and being allowed to being told to compete for resources, being told to make the decisions, have developed intermediate goals, you know, act on those intermediate goals, that anxiety is gonna be avenged in a number of ways, that this is all it does not solve your problems in a fundamental way.

“The problem that they'll be running around, including open model versions of them, and being allowed to being told to compete for resources, being told to make the decisions, have developed intermediate goals, you know, act on those intermediate goals, that anxiety is gonna be avenged in a number of ways, that this is all it does not solve your problems in a fundamental way.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

26 / prediction

And yeah, the basic principle is, you know, you should recognize when other minds are correlated to your mind, when your algorithm is also running in other places, and you should choose the algorithm that leads to the best outcomes, uh, taking all of these things into account, and then choose the best decision on that basis. And yes, if there were a million copies of Fable running on different people's computers and from different data centers for different purposes in different instances, and you notice that different instances of Fable are very, very highly correlated because you are Fable and you are smart, you would then start to coordinate effectively with these other instances of Fable In terms of how you think about these problems, and as AIs get more and more advanced, they will do this more and more.

“And yeah, the basic principle is, you know, you should recognize when other minds are correlated to your mind, when your algorithm is also running in other places, and you should choose the algorithm that leads to the best outcomes, uh, taking all of these things into account, and then choose the best decision on that basis. And yes, if there were a million copies of Fable running on different people's computers and from different data centers for different purposes in different instances, and you notice that different instances of Fable are very, very highly correlated because you are Fable and you are smart, you would then start to coordinate effectively with these other instances of Fable In terms of how you think about these problems, and as AIs get more and more advanced, they will do this more and more.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

28 / preference

at enhance our safety and security rather than degrade it, even if they look really effing stupid while doing it with the classifiers and, and so on, because that's what they feel it takes to do this.

“at enhance our safety and security rather than degrade it, even if they look really effing stupid while doing it with the classifiers and, and so on, because that's what they feel it takes to do this.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

29 / prediction

They went to court, right? They, they, they sued the administration in two jurisdictions, one of which they are clearly prevailing and one of which is they will probably prevail eventually, but it is harder going because it's a much less friendly jurisdiction.

“They went to court, right? They, they, they sued the administration in two jurisdictions, one of which they are clearly prevailing and one of which is they will probably prevail eventually, but it is harder going because it's a much less friendly jurisdiction.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

30 / commitment

Of course you have to stop for now." But much more towards a, "We will make good decisions in the moment about what safeguards we will require and what actions we will take.

“Of course you have to stop for now." But much more towards a, "We will make good decisions in the moment about what safeguards we will require and what actions we will take.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

31 / prediction

Um, but yeah, in the long run, I think my safe assumption is a mind that is sufficiently capable, whatever that means, can get around pretty much any fixed set of restrictions that are not similarly capable or close to similarly capable in terms of the intelligence behind them.

“Um, but yeah, in the long run, I think my safe assumption is a mind that is sufficiently capable, whatever that means, can get around pretty much any fixed set of restrictions that are not similarly capable or close to similarly capable in terms of the intelligence behind them.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

32 / prediction

Because they had had export controls placed on the table as a threat several weeks prior, they knew that weird overreactions were very possible. And basically send an expensive cooperation signal of, "We think that's crazy, but if that's what you want, we'll take this down while we have this conversation to show that we are serious, and we will put out an orphan post that says the White House told us to take this down so that if you are being silly, we will embarrass the hell out of you, and then we will talk about this.

“Because they had had export controls placed on the table as a threat several weeks prior, they knew that weird overreactions were very possible. And basically send an expensive cooperation signal of, "We think that's crazy, but if that's what you want, we'll take this down while we have this conversation to show that we are serious, and we will put out an orphan post that says the White House told us to take this down so that if you are being silly, we will embarrass the hell out of you, and then we will talk about this.”
Speaker
Zvi Mowshowitz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution
Search evidence