Zvi Mowshowitz: prediction

Transcript context

…I am once again struck by how Chinese-like we start to sound when we're really focused on the government's need to save face and how everybody needs to position themselves around that need. It's, um, a bit spooky for me as a, uh, once upon a time big believer in American exceptionalism. A little less so these days. If Anthropic decided to fight back, what could it actually do? Zvi walks the real levers, the courts, the Congress, and the strange possibility that the most capable AIs end up usable only inside secured buildings, before landing on the hard truth about why a company simply does not go to war with the United States. If they decide we need to play hardball, what does that potentially look like? They went to court, right? They, they, they sued the administration in two jurisdictions, one of which they are clearly prevailing and one of which is they will probably prevail eventually, but it is harder going because it's a much less friendly jurisdiction. If the US government tries to do this on a semi-permanent or even permanent basis, then I don't know what the legal landscape looks like. That is not my area of expertise, and I'm sure they have very, very, very good lawyers because we-- they hired extremely good lawyers for their lawsuits, and they will know what their options are. If they are-- If we are-- If the policy is basically nobody is allowed to release fable-style models indefinitely, then that's probably not something they can do much about, or, you know, they have to be restricted in this way. My presumption is that if OpenAI is allowed to proceed with their version when they finally figure out how to do it, and Anthropic remains restricted, that would be a much harder case to maintain legally. But, I mean, the bottom line is that, you know, if the administration is determined to issue a bunch of orders, then the solutions are the Congress and the courts, right? In some fundamental sense. Like, you cannot simply say, "Screw you, we're gonna do what we want." That doesn't really fly. And so, you know, the Congress doesn't seem inclined to take this that seriously or, or be willing to go up against the president. So the question is, what are your legal remedies? Is there a speech provision here? There might be. Certainly, you're censoring the outputs of a model, uh, in various ways. But I, you know, again, I don't know. My guess is you take the situation to the public. You make-- You take the situation to the, to the, the other companies and the CISOs. And also you deploy... Worst case scenario is you deploy Mythos internally because they do not seem inclined to actually stop that. I mean, like, they can interfere preventing non, non-Americans from doing it, but they have, I think something like eighty, eighty-five percent of their employees are in fact American. And you need to develop better versions of Opus. So, like, last week, An- Anthropic was doing the land office business. OpenAI was doing reasonably well, but I believe Anthropic was, like, commercially still clearly in the lead, uh, without Fable or Mythos. And my expectation is that that will continue to be the case and that having internal access to this model will give them a large advantage going forward in terms of the quality of Opus versus the quality of ChatGPT, uh, just by default as they grow over time. You know, if they're at... Look, we might, we might well be entering a situation in which, you know, Rune called it zones of thought from the Vurdulak novels, where if you want to use the intelligent, really intelligent AIs, you can only do that in certain buildings. You can only do that in certain, like, secured locations. thought from the Vurdulak novels, where if you want to use the intelligent, really intelligent AIs, you can only do that in certain buildings. You can only do that in certain, like, secured locations. And some of us would never have dared to suggest or ask for this, even if we wanted it, because it would have sounded completely insane. But the US government might just do it anyway. But, you know, if that happens, I think that, you know, for now you have not that much choice but take it on the chin…

Stored transcript either side of the excerpt. The highlighted words are the published quote; the surrounding text is unedited source, never generated.