Zvi Mowshowitz: prediction

Transcript context

…The CEO is not even involved in this. It just goes as a regular kind of reporting. It goes back to the, the federal government and someone takes a look at it and says, throws up their hands. They're like, "Wow." And then that leads to a bunch of basically non-technical people reviewing this and saying like, "Hey, we gotta shut it down. Gotta shut it down now." This is especially so because AWS runs GovCloud, and GovCloud is where a lot of the federal government's computing is done, and it is the primary... You know, Microsoft is also in there, but GovCloud is the primary cloud for the federal government. Yeah, that's not what the reporting I saw said. The reporting I saw said that Jassy called the White House, but you know, we don't know. It could have gone any number of ways, and what is very clear to me that various people in the White House, including at Commerce especially, got the implication that some sort of serious jailbreak had taken place and then went into a panic and then contacted Dario And then Dario tried to convince them that based on the descriptions they were giving, this seemed like it was nothing. And there w- and then they interpreted this as, "Oh, Dario doesn't take security seriously, and he doesn't listen to us. He is defecting. He is sc-" They, th- their term is, "He screwed us." And then they proceeded to impose export controls that same day when Anthropic refused to take his flagship product down on 90 minutes notice. Now, having had a day or two to reflect on it and seen more of the details, I do think that it was a mistake by Anthropic and Dario to not give the Wookiee what he wanted in the moment and temporarily take down the model in order to prevent exactly this situation. Because they had had export controls placed on the table as a threat several weeks prior, they knew that weird overreactions were very possible. And basically send an expensive cooperation signal of, "We think that's crazy, but if that's what you want, we'll take this down while we have this conversation to show that we are serious, and we will put out an orphan post that says the White House told us to take this down so that if you are being silly, we will embarrass the hell out of you, and then we will talk about this. " And then, you know, maybe on Monday or Tuesday they could bring it back up or whatever it is, because it's becoming increasingly clear this was nothing. Listen first to where Zvi lands on the politics. An administration treating technical policy as pure partisan vibes and digging in to save face. And then to the thing about that whole face-saving dynamic that I could not stop turning over.…

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