Evidence receipt / prediction
Published · transcript-backedDan Balsam: prediction
8 Aug 2026 The Cognitive Revolution Thinking in Silico: Goodfire CTO Dan Balsam on Concept Manifolds & a $1000/Month ML Research Agent
“I have a prior that these that these things should be related. I think one of my favorite examples is the affective circumflex.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Dan Balsam
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- prediction
- Recorded
- 8 Aug 2026
- Publisher
- The Cognitive Revolution
Transcript context
…So how do you find these things? This is where I probably struggled the most in understanding all the techniques, especially it's more intuitive to me when it's supervised versus when it's unsupervised. So maybe try to give me a a poor man's understanding of Yeah. How you go from maybe in each case, like the supervised case and the unsupervised case to actually shrink wrapping your way down to this manifold that you can then visualize in such a nice way and and actually steer your way through. Yeah. So I'm definitely not the best person on the team to walk you through the math, but I can give you a a little bit of an intuition for some of these things. In the supervised case, I think it's, like, fairly straightforward. It's like there's some concept that I wanna measure. I have a prior that these that these things should be related. I think one of my favorite examples is the affective circumflex. I don't know if you're familiar from this. Anthropic did some work on it. We've done also some some work on it. It's the idea that emotions, like, exist on a wheel. It's actually an idea from psychology that there's different different emotions exist. There's basically, like, two principal components you can draw, and you can put all the emotions on a wheel. Mhmm.…
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