High Signal Podcasts Evidence ledger
Method
Browse
How the evidence works

Public evidence record

Philip E. Tetlock

Published podcast speaker

Claims
28
Episodes
1
Shows
1
Named items
1

Books, apps, and tools

The evidenced stack.

Browse the grouped index →

person / likes

Steve Pinker

“Well, I’m a fan of Steve Pinker. I think the Enlightenment was a big deal.”

Conversations with Tyler · 22 Apr 2020

Evidence receipt · Source ↗

Claim ledger

What Philip said.

15 transcript-backed records

01 / belief

I think a lot of good executives have the intuition that you get more out of a team of forecasters or problem solvers if you elicit independent judgments initially that are uncontaminated by conformity pressure, and then you create an environment in which ideas can be freely critiqued before lifting the veil of anonymity and letting people see who’s taking which positions.

“I think a lot of good executives have the intuition that you get more out of a team of forecasters or problem solvers if you elicit independent judgments initially that are uncontaminated by conformity pressure, and then you create an environment in which ideas can be freely critiqued before lifting the veil of anonymity and letting people see who’s taking which positions.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

02 / belief

I think he thought I was probably bright enough to do well, and he probably thought that I was contrarian and weird enough that there was some possibility of doing something distinctively well.

“I think he thought I was probably bright enough to do well, and he probably thought that I was contrarian and weird enough that there was some possibility of doing something distinctively well.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

03 / belief

I think Danny Kahneman who’s not known as an optimist, proposed it. It sounds like an optimistic idea, but I think he’s not all that optimistic about what it can achieve on close inspection.

“I think Danny Kahneman who’s not known as an optimist, proposed it. It sounds like an optimistic idea, but I think he’s not all that optimistic about what it can achieve on close inspection.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

04 / belief

I’ve always resonated a little more to the foxes than to the hedgehogs, but I think when you look at the great achievements in science, they often come from hedgehogs.

“I’ve always resonated a little more to the foxes than to the hedgehogs, but I think when you look at the great achievements in science, they often come from hedgehogs.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

05 / belief

I think everything we know, from the overlap between superforecasting and intelligence and the overlap between intelligence and success in many different professional lines of work, would suggests that that’s almost certainly true.

“I think everything we know, from the overlap between superforecasting and intelligence and the overlap between intelligence and success in many different professional lines of work, would suggests that that’s almost certainly true.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

06 / belief

People thought that we were borderline insane. But we left for very personal reasons, and without going into what those were, I would say Philadelphia has been a moderately pleasant surprise.

“People thought that we were borderline insane. But we left for very personal reasons, and without going into what those were, I would say Philadelphia has been a moderately pleasant surprise.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

11 / belief

I think you’d want an interdisciplinary team. Diversity is one of these words that’s been reduced to a cliché, but we have found in our work that cognitive diversity helps, and it helps in certain quite well-defined ways.

“I think you’d want an interdisciplinary team. Diversity is one of these words that’s been reduced to a cliché, but we have found in our work that cognitive diversity helps, and it helps in certain quite well-defined ways.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

12 / belief

Insofar as we can improve the standards of evidence of proof in judging counterfactual claims as well as conditional forecasts and linking the two, I think there’s a potential for improving the quality of debates among interested parties.

“Insofar as we can improve the standards of evidence of proof in judging counterfactual claims as well as conditional forecasts and linking the two, I think there’s a potential for improving the quality of debates among interested parties.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

13 / belief

I think humans have been repeatedly humbled in competitions against simple statistical algorithms, going back to Paul Meehl’s famous little book on clinical versus actuarial approaches to predicting in medicine and psychiatry.

“I think humans have been repeatedly humbled in competitions against simple statistical algorithms, going back to Paul Meehl’s famous little book on clinical versus actuarial approaches to predicting in medicine and psychiatry.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

15 / belief

I think probably my advisor — University of British Columbia — Peter Suedfeld who supported me and believed in me when there didn’t seem to be very many good reasons for doing so.

“I think probably my advisor — University of British Columbia — Peter Suedfeld who supported me and believed in me when there didn’t seem to be very many good reasons for doing so.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler
Search evidence