Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedPhilip E. Tetlock: belief
22 Apr 2020 Conversations with Tyler Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox
“Insofar as we can improve the standards of evidence of proof in judging counterfactual claims as well as conditional forecasts and linking the two, I think there’s a potential for improving the quality of debates among interested parties.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Philip E. Tetlock
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 22 Apr 2020
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…And two more questions to close. First, what can you tell us about your next project? Well, I think the next project is the one that I mentioned earlier. It’s linking historical counterfactual reasoning with conditional forecasting. I think it’ll be the second phase of the FOCUS research tournaments. I think that counterfactual reasoning has, for too long, been the last refuge of ideological scoundrels. Insofar as we can improve the standards of evidence of proof in judging counterfactual claims as well as conditional forecasts and linking the two, I think there’s a potential for improving the quality of debates among interested parties. And finally, what should a superforecaster predict about the future course of your influence?…
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