Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedPhilip E. Tetlock: belief
22 Apr 2020 Conversations with Tyler Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox
“If you looked at just the unweighted average of judgments from the median, I think was probably around 1730, 1740.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Philip E. Tetlock
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 22 Apr 2020
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…On historical counterfactuals, by what year do you think the ascent of the West was more or less inevitable? Well, I have inside information here. We did a survey of some very prominent historians. We reported it in that book, Unmaking the West. We put a part of it anyway, also in an article in American Political Science Review. If you looked at just the unweighted average of judgments from the median, I think was probably around 1730, 1740. And you think after that, it was not very contingent?…
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