person / likes
Steve Pinker
“Well, I’m a fan of Steve Pinker. I think the Enlightenment was a big deal.”
Public evidence record
Philip E. Tetlock
Published podcast speaker
- Claims
- 28
- Episodes
- 1
- Shows
- 1
- Named items
- 1
Books, apps, and tools
The evidenced stack.
Claim ledger
What Philip said.
7 transcript-backed records
01 / evaluation
Well, I think that particular measure in integrative complexity does have some correlation with forecasting accuracy.
“Well, I think that particular measure in integrative complexity does have some correlation with forecasting accuracy.”
- Speaker
- Philip E. Tetlock
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
02 / evaluation
I think that we look to forecasters for ideological reassurance, we look to forecasters for entertainment, and we look to forecasters for minimizing regret functions of various sorts.
“I think that we look to forecasters for ideological reassurance, we look to forecasters for entertainment, and we look to forecasters for minimizing regret functions of various sorts.”
- Speaker
- Philip E. Tetlock
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
03 / evaluation
I think there’s a good deal of similarity in the cognitive ability, cognitive-style profiles of superforecasters and the kinds of people you see on the staffs of Goldman Sachs.
“I think there’s a good deal of similarity in the cognitive ability, cognitive-style profiles of superforecasters and the kinds of people you see on the staffs of Goldman Sachs.”
- Speaker
- Philip E. Tetlock
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
04 / evaluation
I certainly have been guilty of overconfidence at many junctures in my career, thinking I’m going to be able to take on things that looked impossible and often turned out to be impossible. Most projects that most scientists embark on, I think, don’t succeed.
“I certainly have been guilty of overconfidence at many junctures in my career, thinking I’m going to be able to take on things that looked impossible and often turned out to be impossible. Most projects that most scientists embark on, I think, don’t succeed.”
- Speaker
- Philip E. Tetlock
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
05 / evaluation
I can assure you of that because there are plenty of people who are naturally more entertaining than epidemiologists.
“I can assure you of that because there are plenty of people who are naturally more entertaining than epidemiologists.”
- Speaker
- Philip E. Tetlock
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
06 / evaluation
I think one reason they may be interested in forecasting tournaments is because forecasting tournaments incentivize people to do one thing and only one thing, and that’s accuracy.
“I think one reason they may be interested in forecasting tournaments is because forecasting tournaments incentivize people to do one thing and only one thing, and that’s accuracy.”
- Speaker
- Philip E. Tetlock
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
07 / evaluation
I started as an experimental psychologist, and history looks very different, but they can be connected because historical judgment is something that psychologists study to some degree.
“I started as an experimental psychologist, and history looks very different, but they can be connected because historical judgment is something that psychologists study to some degree.”
- Speaker
- Philip E. Tetlock
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler