Evidence receipt / evaluation
Published · transcript-backedPhilip E. Tetlock: evaluation
22 Apr 2020 Conversations with Tyler Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox
“I certainly have been guilty of overconfidence at many junctures in my career, thinking I’m going to be able to take on things that looked impossible and often turned out to be impossible. Most projects that most scientists embark on, I think, don’t succeed.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Philip E. Tetlock
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- evaluation
- Recorded
- 22 Apr 2020
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…Sure. There’s a great deal of truth to it. I certainly have been guilty of overconfidence at many junctures in my career, thinking I’m going to be able to take on things that looked impossible and often turned out to be impossible. Most projects that most scientists embark on, I think, don’t succeed. It does take a certain amount of quasi-irrational persistence. As with Columbus, right? Or the founding of the United States arguably was irrational to break away from the British Empire, right? Which was doing pretty well back then.…
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