Evidence receipt / evaluation
Published · transcript-backedPhilip E. Tetlock: evaluation
22 Apr 2020 Conversations with Tyler Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox
“I think there’s a good deal of similarity in the cognitive ability, cognitive-style profiles of superforecasters and the kinds of people you see on the staffs of Goldman Sachs.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Philip E. Tetlock
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- evaluation
- Recorded
- 22 Apr 2020
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…If you took your 10 best superforecasters and brought them into the hedge fund people at Goldman Sachs and you all sat down together, who would be teaching whom? [laughs] It’s an interesting experiment. My project manager from the first set of forecasting tournaments, Terry Murray, founded a company, Good Judgment Incorporated, which does things like that. So that’s a proprietary venture. You’d probably want to talk to Terry about how successful or not successful they’ve been in doing that. I think they’ve had some success. It’s extremely hard to do that. It’s nontrivial. I think there’s a good deal of similarity in the cognitive ability, cognitive-style profiles of superforecasters and the kinds of people you see on the staffs of Goldman Sachs. It would be a tight race. What about the sports betting market, do you think there are inefficiencies in that because they don’t have enough superforecasters?…
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