Philip E. Tetlock: evaluation

Transcript context

…Do you think we can draw any inferences from that about politics? Should we have more faith in the people who sound smarter or not at all? Well, I think that particular measure in integrative complexity does have some correlation with forecasting accuracy. But I think you’re picking up something more than just forecasting accuracy. You’re picking up what I call value pluralism. You’re picking up a tendency to endorse values that are often in conflict with each other. So the more frequently that you, as a political thinker, confront cognitive dissonance between your values, your value orientations, the more pressured you are to engage in integratively complex synthetic thinking. When your values are more lopsided, it’s easier to engage in what we call simpler modes of cognitive dissonance reduction, like denial or bolstering and spreading of the alternatives. So downplay one value, push up the other value, and make your life stress-free. But some ideological positions at some points in history require more tolerance for dissonance and some people are more inclined to fill those roles. And you think those politicians are also likely to be better forecasters?…

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