Evidence receipt / evaluation
Published · transcript-backedPhilip E. Tetlock: evaluation
22 Apr 2020 Conversations with Tyler Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox
“I think one reason they may be interested in forecasting tournaments is because forecasting tournaments incentivize people to do one thing and only one thing, and that’s accuracy.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Philip E. Tetlock
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- evaluation
- Recorded
- 22 Apr 2020
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…But no one believes that, right? Well, that is supposed to be the division of labor here. I think one reason they may be interested in forecasting tournaments is because forecasting tournaments incentivize people to do one thing and only one thing, and that’s accuracy. You don’t get points for skewing your judgements toward your favorite cause. You take a hit in the long term by doing that. If you were in charge of the CIA and had a free hand, how would you reform it?…
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