Philip E. Tetlock: evaluation

Transcript context

…Maybe they’re not an academic. They’re a smart business person. How do they do this? Kind of obvious things, like read a little bit more outside your field. If you’re a liberal, read the Wall Street Journal. If you’re a conservative, read the New York Times. Expose yourself to dissonant points of view. Try to cultivate some interests outside your field, and try to connect them together. I think there’s an optimal distance. For history, for example — sounds quite different from what I did. I started as an experimental psychologist, and history looks very different, but they can be connected because historical judgment is something that psychologists study to some degree. Psychologists are interested in hindsight and counterfactuals and so forth. So you can link the two. I think there’s an optimal distance, and when you go foraging as a fox, you probably don’t want to forage way, way far away. You want to forage far enough away that it’ll be stimulating but still possible to reconnect. What kinds of people are best at adversarial collaboration?…

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