Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedPhilip E. Tetlock: belief
22 Apr 2020 Conversations with Tyler Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox
“I think humans have been repeatedly humbled in competitions against simple statistical algorithms, going back to Paul Meehl’s famous little book on clinical versus actuarial approaches to predicting in medicine and psychiatry.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Philip E. Tetlock
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 22 Apr 2020
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…And do you have a personal intuition on that? I think humans have been repeatedly humbled in competitions against simple statistical algorithms, going back to Paul Meehl’s famous little book on clinical versus actuarial approaches to predicting in medicine and psychiatry. So, I would say, “Be humble.” There’s some of your early research that, if I read it properly, suggests that making people accountable leads to more evasion and self-deception on their part. Are you worried that your work with pundits, by trying to make them more accountable, will lead to more evasion and self-deception from them? How do you square early Tetlock and mid-period-to-late Tetlock?…
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