Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedPhilip E. Tetlock: belief
22 Apr 2020 Conversations with Tyler Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox
“A combination of fluid intelligence and integrative complexity, I think, does boost up forecasting accuracy, yes.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Philip E. Tetlock
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 22 Apr 2020
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…And you think those politicians are also likely to be better forecasters? We’re not talking about huge effect sizes here or integrative complexity. I think that fluid intelligence is probably a more powerful predictor. A combination of fluid intelligence and integrative complexity, I think, does boost up forecasting accuracy, yes. And if you were running the CIA, those people who are pluralistic in the manner you just outlined, would you promote them more rapidly?…
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