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Acquired / episode intelligence

DoorDash

10 Dec 2020 53 published claims 2 attributable people

Speakers in the public record

Claim mix

belief 28evaluation 10uncertainty 7commitment 3preference 3observation 2

Evidence policy

Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.

Claim ledger

The useful parts, with receipts.

53 published records

01 / belief

I think that's a wolf in sheep's clothing or fox in the henhouse or whatever you want to say, especially now that they have the market cap that they do and they're publicly traded and they have the shareholders that they do.

“I think that's a wolf in sheep's clothing or fox in the henhouse or whatever you want to say, especially now that they have the market cap that they do and they're publicly traded and they have the shareholders that they do.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

04 / belief

You're going back to the original macaroon shop, Chloe at Chantal Macarons. That's not a full meal, but I suspect what happened was just that the meal delivery became so big and clearly had a product/market fit that just became all-consuming.

“You're going back to the original macaroon shop, Chloe at Chantal Macarons. That's not a full meal, but I suspect what happened was just that the meal delivery became so big and clearly had a product/market fit that just became all-consuming.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

07 / belief

If you're new to the show, carve outs are basically where we throw in things we're watching, things we're paying attention to, things we're reading that have nothing to do with the show but we think are interesting to put on your radar.

“If you're new to the show, carve outs are basically where we throw in things we're watching, things we're paying attention to, things we're reading that have nothing to do with the show but we think are interesting to put on your radar.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

10 / commitment

We won't go into all the ins and outs here, but the TLDR is California has a crazy legislative and legal system where citizens actually vote directly on propositions that in fact, the laws instead of a Republican representative-type system, and Uber and DoorDash, as well as the other gig economy companies had put forward this Prop 22 to permanently create space and classify their labor as contractors and gig economy workers.

“We won't go into all the ins and outs here, but the TLDR is California has a crazy legislative and legal system where citizens actually vote directly on propositions that in fact, the laws instead of a Republican representative-type system, and Uber and DoorDash, as well as the other gig economy companies had put forward this Prop 22 to permanently create space and classify their labor as contractors and gig economy workers.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

15 / belief

I don't think there's more recent ones, but in terms of analysis, certainly, the market had decided when they IPOed that it was not a good stock. For years afterwards, I think people had a lot of hate toward this company.

“I don't think there's more recent ones, but in terms of analysis, certainly, the market had decided when they IPOed that it was not a good stock. For years afterwards, I think people had a lot of hate toward this company.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

18 / belief

I think if I was running a local restaurant right now, what I would try and do is I should caveat all this with oh my gosh, I can only imagine how hard it must be to be a small business entrepreneur running a restaurant right now.

“I think if I was running a local restaurant right now, what I would try and do is I should caveat all this with oh my gosh, I can only imagine how hard it must be to be a small business entrepreneur running a restaurant right now.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

19 / belief

I think I've related the corollary playbook theme to that for me that we've seen across this season at Acquired and some of the other episodes we've done recently, focusing on more bootstrap businesses and just businesses with different histories.

“I think I've related the corollary playbook theme to that for me that we've seen across this season at Acquired and some of the other episodes we've done recently, focusing on more bootstrap businesses and just businesses with different histories.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

22 / uncertainty

With DoorDash, if you're opening it multiple times a week and interacting with it, I don't know, it still stretched, it's not what they're doing today but I think there's a good chance that they can add more just in the same way that Amazon was the book company when they started.

“With DoorDash, if you're opening it multiple times a week and interacting with it, I don't know, it still stretched, it's not what they're doing today but I think there's a good chance that they can add more just in the same way that Amazon was the book company when they started.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

23 / belief

The biggest bear case I think you can make is that they're not going to be able to make the leap out of this restaurant category and this is going to continue to be a razor thin, highly competitive business, and they're just never going to be able to take all the investment that they've made and actually get to benefit from an immensely cash flow positive output on the other side.

“The biggest bear case I think you can make is that they're not going to be able to make the leap out of this restaurant category and this is going to continue to be a razor thin, highly competitive business, and they're just never going to be able to take all the investment that they've made and actually get to benefit from an immensely cash flow positive output on the other side.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

24 / evaluation

Actually one of them is pandemic related, which is the most simple way to look at the pandemic related bear cases. This is the best it's ever going to be for this business and after this, there's going to be way less demand than there previously was The other, I think a little bit more nuanced way to look at it is, the data that they're getting right now may not inform consumer behavior in the future, and so it will be hard to trust the guardrails for this cohort.

“Actually one of them is pandemic related, which is the most simple way to look at the pandemic related bear cases. This is the best it's ever going to be for this business and after this, there's going to be way less demand than there previously was The other, I think a little bit more nuanced way to look at it is, the data that they're getting right now may not inform consumer behavior in the future, and so it will be hard to trust the guardrails for this cohort.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

25 / belief

I think the biggest reason for that I think is structural—we're talking about a minute ago in terms of vehicle types—the depreciation on ridesharing, on the vehicles is a huge in cost that the laborers bear and of course depending on what vehicle you're driving with for DoorDash, you're probably also incurring depreciation but potentially way less.

“I think the biggest reason for that I think is structural—we're talking about a minute ago in terms of vehicle types—the depreciation on ridesharing, on the vehicles is a huge in cost that the laborers bear and of course depending on what vehicle you're driving with for DoorDash, you're probably also incurring depreciation but potentially way less.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

26 / evaluation

David, this is the best illustration yet of the whole point we've been trying to make on this episode, which is in order to try and be profitable and grow without massive investor influxes of cash.

“David, this is the best illustration yet of the whole point we've been trying to make on this episode, which is in order to try and be profitable and grow without massive investor influxes of cash.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

27 / belief

I think I would maybe push back on that a little bit in the now in the short term in that yes, there's a lot of sentiment among restaurateurs and often justifiably so that DoorDash and other platforms take way too much of the order, is eating their cost, their restaurant's cost structures are not sustainable, profit margins have went sailing on these platforms, they can't make things work.

“I think I would maybe push back on that a little bit in the now in the short term in that yes, there's a lot of sentiment among restaurateurs and often justifiably so that DoorDash and other platforms take way too much of the order, is eating their cost, their restaurant's cost structures are not sustainable, profit margins have went sailing on these platforms, they can't make things work.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

28 / belief

" I think as Tony tells the story, that was also part of what helped them raise coming out of YC, pitching this bigger version of, hey, this isn't just meal delivery, you've already heard of this, Grubhub exists, but this is actually a logistics network and this is something different.

“" I think as Tony tells the story, that was also part of what helped them raise coming out of YC, pitching this bigger version of, hey, this isn't just meal delivery, you've already heard of this, Grubhub exists, but this is actually a logistics network and this is something different.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

29 / belief

Absolutely, and I think about it as you think about the far future of how the world of restaurants reorganize, given you now have this participant in the system or the set of participants in the system that are gobbling up all the consumer attention and the default way to order food.

“Absolutely, and I think about it as you think about the far future of how the world of restaurants reorganize, given you now have this participant in the system or the set of participants in the system that are gobbling up all the consumer attention and the default way to order food.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

33 / belief

DoorDash came along and said, this is why I think bicycles were so brilliant in the early days and in Boston, and then that grew into ebikes, then that grew into scooters of all different types but the powered motorcycle like scooters and so birdlike scooters.

“DoorDash came along and said, this is why I think bicycles were so brilliant in the early days and in Boston, and then that grew into ebikes, then that grew into scooters of all different types but the powered motorcycle like scooters and so birdlike scooters.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

36 / belief

I think that's true although I think coronavirus was a huge accelerant to them, vastly improved their chances, and also stepped on the gas and continued to run this playbook while their competitors pulled back, vastly improved their chances.

“I think that's true although I think coronavirus was a huge accelerant to them, vastly improved their chances, and also stepped on the gas and continued to run this playbook while their competitors pulled back, vastly improved their chances.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

39 / belief

The bull narrative, I think we've told a lot of it along the way here, and I at least mostly subscribe to it is they have just like Meituan seems to have done in China, they have accomplished the dream or in the process of accomplishing the dream and taking a market like this, a highly competitive local network effect market, and tipped it in their favor such that there's no viable competition.

“The bull narrative, I think we've told a lot of it along the way here, and I at least mostly subscribe to it is they have just like Meituan seems to have done in China, they have accomplished the dream or in the process of accomplishing the dream and taking a market like this, a highly competitive local network effect market, and tipped it in their favor such that there's no viable competition.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

40 / belief

In the last quarter Q3 ended September 30th, contribution profit improved to $215 million which a year ago, they had lost $52 million in Q3, and I believe the total contribution profit for the nine months of 2020 so far is $433 million.

“In the last quarter Q3 ended September 30th, contribution profit improved to $215 million which a year ago, they had lost $52 million in Q3, and I believe the total contribution profit for the nine months of 2020 so far is $433 million.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

41 / belief

I think that's fair but I think your upside is capped. You're never going to build an Epic Games type-sized company if you don't take the go big approach in a capital intensive market like this.

“I think that's fair but I think your upside is capped. You're never going to build an Epic Games type-sized company if you don't take the go big approach in a capital intensive market like this.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

42 / commitment

To contextualize this, in the small-ish order values of food delivery as a category compared to, say, travel, which we will cover tomorrow on the Airbnb episode, it's hard to stack all those purchases on top of each other to get to a truly huge gross business.

“To contextualize this, in the small-ish order values of food delivery as a category compared to, say, travel, which we will cover tomorrow on the Airbnb episode, it's hard to stack all those purchases on top of each other to get to a truly huge gross business.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

46 / evaluation

To me, for a brand to be a power, it has to be like Tiffany's. That's the canonical thing where I'm willing to pay more for these exact same commodities simply because of the brand name on it and there's no way that applies to DoorDash, no way.

“To me, for a brand to be a power, it has to be like Tiffany's. That's the canonical thing where I'm willing to pay more for these exact same commodities simply because of the brand name on it and there's no way that applies to DoorDash, no way.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

48 / evaluation

An excellent analysis that basically shows it costs about $6 for DoorDash to acquire a customer, and assuming that they stick around for five years and frankly, we don't know how long they're going to stick around, but that seems like a reasonable enough estimate just because the company is so young that DoorDash can earn about $60 in pure profit from them over those five years.

“An excellent analysis that basically shows it costs about $6 for DoorDash to acquire a customer, and assuming that they stick around for five years and frankly, we don't know how long they're going to stick around, but that seems like a reasonable enough estimate just because the company is so young that DoorDash can earn about $60 in pure profit from them over those five years.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

49 / evaluation

As long as deliveries were sub 42-minute, customers didn't really care how long they took. It's just this amazing lightbulb that by diving into it, this flies in the face to what I said a moment ago because this is an average number and not a per customer, per location, per type of food tail number, but the idea that they can learn that 42 minutes is their food delivery equivalent of that magic five-minute mark for Uber where I don't care if an Uber's two minutes away or five minutes away, it's the same thing.

“As long as deliveries were sub 42-minute, customers didn't really care how long they took. It's just this amazing lightbulb that by diving into it, this flies in the face to what I said a moment ago because this is an average number and not a per customer, per location, per type of food tail number, but the idea that they can learn that 42 minutes is their food delivery equivalent of that magic five-minute mark for Uber where I don't care if an Uber's two minutes away or five minutes away, it's the same thing.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired

51 / evaluation

I don't know, but I do think—as we'll get into this as we go along in the story—similar to Bezos and Amazon in their early days, one thing about DoorDash is they've been willing to fly very low to the ground, so to speak on this.

“I don't know, but I do think—as we'll get into this as we go along in the story—similar to Bezos and Amazon in their early days, one thing about DoorDash is they've been willing to fly very low to the ground, so to speak on this.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Episode
DoorDash
Publisher
Acquired
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