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Jack Clark

Published podcast speaker

Claims
41
Episodes
1
Shows
1
Named items
0

Claim ledger

What Jack said.

41 transcript-backed records

01 / belief

I think a few years ago, it was encountering quite strong obstacles in the law itself because lawyers tended to like being able to charge very high prices and had a dislike of things that could bid them down.

“I think a few years ago, it was encountering quite strong obstacles in the law itself because lawyers tended to like being able to charge very high prices and had a dislike of things that could bid them down.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

02 / belief

I think within those, you get certain high-status, high-skill parts, where people want to use a certain tradesman, not just because of their skill but because of their notoriety and sometimes an aesthetic quality.

“I think within those, you get certain high-status, high-skill parts, where people want to use a certain tradesman, not just because of their skill but because of their notoriety and sometimes an aesthetic quality.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

03 / belief

” I think there’s going to be a recognition — and we see this today — that there are other skills needed, but the problems that those skills are needed for are often problems which have proved to be impossible for humans to adequately solve for thousands of years.

“” I think there’s going to be a recognition — and we see this today — that there are other skills needed, but the problems that those skills are needed for are often problems which have proved to be impossible for humans to adequately solve for thousands of years.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

04 / belief

People want to do commerce with other people, so I think that there’ll be certain relationships which get mediated by people, and people will have a strong preference, probably, for deals that they make on behalf of their larger pools of capital, where the deals are done by human proxies for large automated organizations or pools of capital.

“People want to do commerce with other people, so I think that there’ll be certain relationships which get mediated by people, and people will have a strong preference, probably, for deals that they make on behalf of their larger pools of capital, where the deals are done by human proxies for large automated organizations or pools of capital.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

07 / belief

I think we already see this today with start-ups that are emerging but have very small numbers of employees relative to what they used to have because they have lots of coding agents working for them.

“I think we already see this today with start-ups that are emerging but have very small numbers of employees relative to what they used to have because they have lots of coding agents working for them.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

08 / commitment

I worry that we are going to be bystanders to what in the future will seem like a great crime, which is something about these things being determined to be conscious and us taking actions which you think are bad to have taken against conscious entities.

“I worry that we are going to be bystanders to what in the future will seem like a great crime, which is something about these things being determined to be conscious and us taking actions which you think are bad to have taken against conscious entities.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

10 / belief

I think there’ll be some form of trade with powerful AI systems or agents that work on people’s behalf, and you may want to trade with them a form of compute because agents may be able to use compute for themselves as well.

“I think there’ll be some form of trade with powerful AI systems or agents that work on people’s behalf, and you may want to trade with them a form of compute because agents may be able to use compute for themselves as well.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

11 / belief

I think that over time, most countries have been integrated into this global capital system, partly through strong incentives, and they may have preferences that are different, but it hasn’t often held.

“I think that over time, most countries have been integrated into this global capital system, partly through strong incentives, and they may have preferences that are different, but it hasn’t often held.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

12 / evaluation

Also, if you have a load of post-industrial areas where you provision loads of power that is no longer being used, try to see if you can allocate that for compute. I think thinking about the economics of this is important.

“Also, if you have a load of post-industrial areas where you provision loads of power that is no longer being used, try to see if you can allocate that for compute. I think thinking about the economics of this is important.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

13 / belief

I think, therefore, there are technologies to be built that look like the safety equivalents that we have in cars or other things, which will change the logic of competition.

“I think, therefore, there are technologies to be built that look like the safety equivalents that we have in cars or other things, which will change the logic of competition.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

14 / belief

I think you buy components that go into things like gas turbines and other things which are the base of the technology tree for generating electricity, of which you know people are going to want to do lots of.

“I think you buy components that go into things like gas turbines and other things which are the base of the technology tree for generating electricity, of which you know people are going to want to do lots of.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

15 / belief

I found that the only way to break through is to take their domain and show them what AI can do directly in the domain, which they can evaluate it within, which is an expensive process.

“I found that the only way to break through is to take their domain and show them what AI can do directly in the domain, which they can evaluate it within, which is an expensive process.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

18 / belief

Maybe my pushback is, I think that all of this could happen sufficiently quickly that we might have the opportunity to just play different higher-status games that are afforded to us via AI and the productive capacity it unlocks.

“Maybe my pushback is, I think that all of this could happen sufficiently quickly that we might have the opportunity to just play different higher-status games that are afforded to us via AI and the productive capacity it unlocks.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

24 / belief

I think governments will have some role of making sure that things reflect the normative preferences of their populations, which are going to continue to be varied, although perhaps AI means a certain homogenization takes place over time, but a lot of the role of government, I think, has always been to represent and encode the revealed values of a certain population.

“I think governments will have some role of making sure that things reflect the normative preferences of their populations, which are going to continue to be varied, although perhaps AI means a certain homogenization takes place over time, but a lot of the role of government, I think, has always been to represent and encode the revealed values of a certain population.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

25 / belief

I think there is a high chance for a political movement to arrive which tries to freeze a load of human jobs in bureaucratic amber as a way to deal with the political issues posed by this incredibly powerful technology and how fast the changes are going to come from.

“I think there is a high chance for a political movement to arrive which tries to freeze a load of human jobs in bureaucratic amber as a way to deal with the political issues posed by this incredibly powerful technology and how fast the changes are going to come from.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

26 / prediction

I expect we enter a world where you have a single digit number of these very, very large-scale models which are servicing a much larger set of wrappers on top of them that change the form factor by which they get integrated into your life, and which have a load of helper functions or knowledge, probably built by those AIs in partnership with some kind of other specialized AI system, or expert knowledge from that domain to chain it in.

“I expect we enter a world where you have a single digit number of these very, very large-scale models which are servicing a much larger set of wrappers on top of them that change the form factor by which they get integrated into your life, and which have a load of helper functions or knowledge, probably built by those AIs in partnership with some kind of other specialized AI system, or expert knowledge from that domain to chain it in.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

28 / belief

I think that maybe it’s more that the challenge of policy is, you are building a bureaucracy for an alien that arrives at some point in the future that you don’t know the shape of and which may, upon the moment of its arrival, be far smarter and more capable than you.

“I think that maybe it’s more that the challenge of policy is, you are building a bureaucracy for an alien that arrives at some point in the future that you don’t know the shape of and which may, upon the moment of its arrival, be far smarter and more capable than you.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

30 / uncertainty

I don’t know if it’s all cities, but I think any city which has something like a specialism — like high-frequency trading in Chicago or certain types of finance in New York — will continue to see some dividend from sets of professionals that gather together in dense quantities to swap ideas.

“I don’t know if it’s all cities, but I think any city which has something like a specialism — like high-frequency trading in Chicago or certain types of finance in New York — will continue to see some dividend from sets of professionals that gather together in dense quantities to swap ideas.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

33 / prediction

I think that’s the part where you have them spend more time with their friends, but you keep the bunny in their life because the bunny is just going to get smarter and be more around them as they grow up.

“I think that’s the part where you have them spend more time with their friends, but you keep the bunny in their life because the bunny is just going to get smarter and be more around them as they grow up.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

34 / evaluation

Some people feel optimistic about stuff like IAEA-style models for this, but I think things that require mutual inspection regimes end up being very, very hard to do under certain rivalrous dynamics.

“Some people feel optimistic about stuff like IAEA-style models for this, but I think things that require mutual inspection regimes end up being very, very hard to do under certain rivalrous dynamics.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

35 / evaluation

I grew up as a professional during the period when online ad market changes were altering the business model of journalism. They were switching from what you might think of as value that you derive through quality, through subscriptions or people buying your stuff to value that you derive from just large-scale attention because that became a lot of the model for funding this stuff.

“I grew up as a professional during the period when online ad market changes were altering the business model of journalism. They were switching from what you might think of as value that you derive through quality, through subscriptions or people buying your stuff to value that you derive from just large-scale attention because that became a lot of the model for funding this stuff.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

36 / recommendation

We don’t recommend it because we’re worried about all of the liability issues this contains, but I know through my revealed preference that I’m always going to want to use that, but I can’t take that Claude assessment and give it to Kaiser Permanente.

“We don’t recommend it because we’re worried about all of the liability issues this contains, but I know through my revealed preference that I’m always going to want to use that, but I can’t take that Claude assessment and give it to Kaiser Permanente.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

37 / prediction

If you just stopped all of it today, all further progress, I think the coding use case alone is going to be incredibly useful because it grows the ability to digitize parts of the economy, which we know drives faster loops in different parts of the economy, but generates value.

“If you just stopped all of it today, all further progress, I think the coding use case alone is going to be incredibly useful because it grows the ability to digitize parts of the economy, which we know drives faster loops in different parts of the economy, but generates value.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

38 / prediction

The reason that my numbers are more conservative is, I think that we will enter into a world where there will be an incredibly fast-moving, high-growth part of the economy, but it is a relatively small part of the economy.

“The reason that my numbers are more conservative is, I think that we will enter into a world where there will be an incredibly fast-moving, high-growth part of the economy, but it is a relatively small part of the economy.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

39 / preference

I think that there is some giant class of activity that we want to continue happening in the world that people do and from which they draw meaning, but I don’t know that the best way to get there is to take some class of work and say this is work that we’re protecting and from which meaning will spring.

“I think that there is some giant class of activity that we want to continue happening in the world that people do and from which they draw meaning, but I don’t know that the best way to get there is to take some class of work and say this is work that we’re protecting and from which meaning will spring.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

41 / evaluation

People will purchase certain things because of the taste of the person, even if that taste looks like certain types of modern art production, where the artist actually backs onto thousands of people that work for them, and they’re more orchestrating it.

“People will purchase certain things because of the taste of the person, even if that taste looks like certain types of modern art production, where the artist actually backs onto thousands of people that work for them, and they’re more orchestrating it.”
Speaker
Jack Clark
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler
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