Jack Clark: prediction

Transcript context

…Claude is more poetic, for instance. A bad example due to the economics of poetry aren’t particularly great. Coding might be a better example. Or there could be cases for things like certain types of scientific experimentation where, actually, taste might come to matter a lot for composing experiments. I expect we enter a world where you have a single digit number of these very, very large-scale models which are servicing a much larger set of wrappers on top of them that change the form factor by which they get integrated into your life, and which have a load of helper functions or knowledge, probably built by those AIs in partnership with some kind of other specialized AI system, or expert knowledge from that domain to chain it in. Here’s a worry I have. My former colleague, Vernon Smith, once wrote a paper on this. He argued that, as you approach six competitors or more, a sector essentially behaves like perfect competition, even if it’s not exactly perfectly competitive. If that’s the case, how is it that AI, or indeed, any other companies, can behave ethically above and beyond what they need to do to stay in the market and earn profit? What room is there to be better than the next company?…

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