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Why ChatGPT will be the next big growth channel (and how to capitalize on it) | Brian Balfour (Reforge)

17 Aug 2025 26 published claims 2 attributable people

Speakers in the public record

Claim mix

belief 9evaluation 6uncertainty 5prediction 3commitment 1recommendation 1observation 1

Evidence policy

Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.

Claim ledger

The useful parts, with receipts.

26 published records

01 / evaluation

These companies that have basically built on top of this platform, the other thing is by the time they started closing all those things down, all those competitors that we talked about, they were so far ahead at that point because they had built off the back of all these developers coming, adding use cases, bringing more users onto the platform, identifying that moat.

“These companies that have basically built on top of this platform, the other thing is by the time they started closing all those things down, all those competitors that we talked about, they were so far ahead at that point because they had built off the back of all these developers coming, adding use cases, bringing more users onto the platform, identifying that moat.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

02 / uncertainty

Google did it very slowly over years, but same thing, early massive competition against Yahoo, I don't know, AltaVista, Lycos, you name them all.

“Google did it very slowly over years, but same thing, early massive competition against Yahoo, I don't know, AltaVista, Lycos, you name them all.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

03 / belief

You just hit on the first one. This is the first one that I always think about because this is where I learned about this cycle very early in my career.

“You just hit on the first one. This is the first one that I always think about because this is where I learned about this cycle very early in my career.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

04 / belief

Essentially, you've uncovered a really important trend or insight about how products are going to grow differently in the future, how growth is changing, and this is something that I think a lot of people need to hear, so I asked you to come on to share what you're seeing.

“Essentially, you've uncovered a really important trend or insight about how products are going to grow differently in the future, how growth is changing, and this is something that I think a lot of people need to hear, so I asked you to come on to share what you're seeing.”
Speaker
Lenny Rachitsky
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

05 / belief

My prediction of the new distribution platform will be ChatGPT, in some ways that people probably already think it's happening in some ways that it won't, but the thing that is less important or that is more important than whether I have predicted the exact winner correctly, the thing that's more important is to understand the cycle and evaluate how to determine where you want to place your bets and how to place those bets, which I know we'll talk about.

“My prediction of the new distribution platform will be ChatGPT, in some ways that people probably already think it's happening in some ways that it won't, but the thing that is less important or that is more important than whether I have predicted the exact winner correctly, the thing that's more important is to understand the cycle and evaluate how to determine where you want to place your bets and how to place those bets, which I know we'll talk about.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

06 / commitment

One company that we worked with developed this constraint that they benchmarked against other companies of their revenue size and the team sizes for those stages, and they set a benchmark that we will be one-fifth, each of our functions will be one-fifth the size.

“One company that we worked with developed this constraint that they benchmarked against other companies of their revenue size and the team sizes for those stages, and they set a benchmark that we will be one-fifth, each of our functions will be one-fifth the size.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

07 / belief

On that note, which I think os a very good summary of what you're trying to do in a startup and distribution, is that we're right now living in this environment where that game of startups getting distribution faster than the incumbent has gotten way harder in a lot of ways, and in some small cases has gotten a little bit easier.

“On that note, which I think os a very good summary of what you're trying to do in a startup and distribution, is that we're right now living in this environment where that game of startups getting distribution faster than the incumbent has gotten way harder in a lot of ways, and in some small cases has gotten a little bit easier.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

09 / belief

All of the ingredients for new distribution platform are essentially happening. My prediction, the new distribution platform will be ChatGPT.

“All of the ingredients for new distribution platform are essentially happening. My prediction, the new distribution platform will be ChatGPT.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

10 / belief

Other than that, I would say, once they launch these platforms, you can't do much else, so you really know what the value exchange is and what they're going to expose for you, but also just be prepared to turn your strategy on a dime and go all in.

“Other than that, I would say, once they launch these platforms, you can't do much else, so you really know what the value exchange is and what they're going to expose for you, but also just be prepared to turn your strategy on a dime and go all in.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

12 / uncertainty

I don't know why that just hit me, but you took a focused bet and you've benefited from it in a disproportional way than those that came later.

“I don't know why that just hit me, but you took a focused bet and you've benefited from it in a disproportional way than those that came later.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

13 / belief

One is that, if you're a CEO listening to this, I would say that most CEOs or most executives are incredibly disconnected from the actual AI adoption taking place inside their companies.

“One is that, if you're a CEO listening to this, I would say that most CEOs or most executives are incredibly disconnected from the actual AI adoption taking place inside their companies.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

14 / uncertainty

What you're saying here is this is the opportunity for startups to disrupt an incumbent. This is the opportunity for someone to disrupt Salesforce, I don't know, ServiceNow, all these guys that have been around for a long time.

“What you're saying here is this is the opportunity for startups to disrupt an incumbent. This is the opportunity for someone to disrupt Salesforce, I don't know, ServiceNow, all these guys that have been around for a long time.”
Speaker
Lenny Rachitsky
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

15 / belief

I am excited for you guys to keep seeing these insights into companies and sharing more of this because this is I think what a lot of people are looking for, just like things aren't quite clicking at our company.

“I am excited for you guys to keep seeing these insights into companies and sharing more of this because this is I think what a lot of people are looking for, just like things aren't quite clicking at our company.”
Speaker
Lenny Rachitsky
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

17 / prediction

There will be smaller platforms that will emerge, and they will follow the exact same cycle that I'm also discussing, but in terms of the biggest consumer one, that's where I think ChatGPT has probably the most escape velocity and others will focus on different areas.

“There will be smaller platforms that will emerge, and they will follow the exact same cycle that I'm also discussing, but in terms of the biggest consumer one, that's where I think ChatGPT has probably the most escape velocity and others will focus on different areas.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

18 / prediction

Things are changing dramatically on a week-to-week basis, so we'll see if they're able to press those advantages in a very clear way. But I think the window is very small for them if ChatGPT plays their cards right, because they clearly have the escape velocity right now.

“Things are changing dramatically on a week-to-week basis, so we'll see if they're able to press those advantages in a very clear way. But I think the window is very small for them if ChatGPT plays their cards right, because they clearly have the escape velocity right now.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

19 / prediction

There's multiple ways that this can happen, but one of the major ways, one of the major, major ways that we always see is that this can happen when new distribution platforms emerge, because when new distribution platforms emerge, startups are usually the fastest to take advantage of them.

“There's multiple ways that this can happen, but one of the major ways, one of the major, major ways that we always see is that this can happen when new distribution platforms emerge, because when new distribution platforms emerge, startups are usually the fastest to take advantage of them.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

20 / evaluation

These models by themselves, if you compare them side by side, they generate the same result, and so the actual difference-maker is which one has more of your context, because it's the context plus the model that produces the best output, and then that starts to accrue to this loop around memory.

“These models by themselves, if you compare them side by side, they generate the same result, and so the actual difference-maker is which one has more of your context, because it's the context plus the model that produces the best output, and then that starts to accrue to this loop around memory.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

21 / evaluation

We saw that in the early Twitter days with things like Vine and Periscope, shutting those things down unceremoniously, or they need to find ways to monetize at a deeper and deeper level because all these companies, they have to grow.

“We saw that in the early Twitter days with things like Vine and Periscope, shutting those things down unceremoniously, or they need to find ways to monetize at a deeper and deeper level because all these companies, they have to grow.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

22 / evaluation

Because all of these dynamics, in all the history, they either end up in monopolies or duopolies, and so the stakes are really large and so the competition is fierce.

“Because all of these dynamics, in all the history, they either end up in monopolies or duopolies, and so the stakes are really large and so the competition is fierce.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

23 / recommendation

I don't know, I'm thinking about the Technology Bros podcast on Twitter right now, TBPN, where they basically figured out on Twitter you can create this livestream and you see it all day in your Twitter feed just like, hey, they're broadcasting, and it's a really cool distribution channel.

“I don't know, I'm thinking about the Technology Bros podcast on Twitter right now, TBPN, where they basically figured out on Twitter you can create this livestream and you see it all day in your Twitter feed just like, hey, they're broadcasting, and it's a really cool distribution channel.”
Speaker
Lenny Rachitsky
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

24 / evaluation

In the blog post that I wrote about this, I actually then played my own devil's advocate and said, "Okay, here are some reasons why it might not be ChatGPT," but I think we're in that part of the cycle.

“In the blog post that I wrote about this, I actually then played my own devil's advocate and said, "Okay, here are some reasons why it might not be ChatGPT," but I think we're in that part of the cycle.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

25 / evaluation

That's probably just based on what real estate and where people live in the stack would own. And then, I think right behind that, I would probably put Google because of owning the context of things like email and the distribution points of search and Chrome and Android and those types of pieces.

“That's probably just based on what real estate and where people live in the stack would own. And then, I think right behind that, I would probably put Google because of owning the context of things like email and the distribution points of search and Chrome and Android and those types of pieces.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

26 / observation

There's actually products for product teams, so maybe just explain that briefly, but the thing that I think is really interesting here is you work with a lot of companies now selling them AI tools, and you have noticed a very big difference between the companies that are really good at adopting AI tools and seeing gains from them from those that don't.

“There's actually products for product teams, so maybe just explain that briefly, but the thing that I think is really interesting here is you work with a lot of companies now selling them AI tools, and you have noticed a very big difference between the companies that are really good at adopting AI tools and seeing gains from them from those that don't.”
Speaker
Lenny Rachitsky
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast
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