Lenny Rachitsky: uncertainty

Transcript context

…Yeah. We'll see. Things are changing dramatically on a week-to-week basis, so we'll see if they're able to press those advantages in a very clear way. But I think the window is very small for them if ChatGPT plays their cards right, because they clearly have the escape velocity right now. If they just keep pressing that advantage in the right way, I think it's going to be very hard for Google to counter in the amount of time that's left On the Claude piece, I'll just throw this nugget out, I had Mike Krieger on the podcast, Head of Product, CPO, at Anthropic, and asked him just, "You're losing to ChatGPT. How do you approach the future of Claude?" He very specifically said, "Yes, they've caught lightning in a bottle. This is just going to win based on what I've seen at Instagram. So we are specifically focusing on what is Anthropic and Claude incredibly good at, which is developer tools, coding, backend stuff." So they're actually leaning more and more into that. If you've seen the revenue recently, they're making, I don't know, approaching 10 billion a year or some crazy amount of money. They're actually doing super well, just in a different use case. I'm glad you mentioned this because this brings up something that we skipped, which is, there are smaller platforms that have existed and will also emerge in this environment as well, and that's what you're alluding to. This tends to happen is things end up growing into more niches. Even if you look at social, like LinkedIn emerged as a subset of the social world, but even on these smaller platforms, these new distribution channels, they go through the same cycle. I'll give something, really a very opposite example of the ones that I gave. Look at the platform Udemy. They are a platform for course creators. I don't know if most people know this, but when they started, their rev share to creators was something like 80% to creators. They started very high. That brought on all the course creators, got their whole marketplace going, so on and so forth. I believe it was about a year ago they announced that they're essentially pushing that rev share down to somewhere between 15 and 20%.…

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