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Brian Balfour

Published podcast speaker

Claims
40
Episodes
2
Shows
1
Named items
0

Claim ledger

What Brian said.

40 transcript-backed records

01 / evaluation

These companies that have basically built on top of this platform, the other thing is by the time they started closing all those things down, all those competitors that we talked about, they were so far ahead at that point because they had built off the back of all these developers coming, adding use cases, bringing more users onto the platform, identifying that moat.

“These companies that have basically built on top of this platform, the other thing is by the time they started closing all those things down, all those competitors that we talked about, they were so far ahead at that point because they had built off the back of all these developers coming, adding use cases, bringing more users onto the platform, identifying that moat.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

02 / uncertainty

Google did it very slowly over years, but same thing, early massive competition against Yahoo, I don't know, AltaVista, Lycos, you name them all.

“Google did it very slowly over years, but same thing, early massive competition against Yahoo, I don't know, AltaVista, Lycos, you name them all.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

03 / belief

You just hit on the first one. This is the first one that I always think about because this is where I learned about this cycle very early in my career.

“You just hit on the first one. This is the first one that I always think about because this is where I learned about this cycle very early in my career.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

04 / belief

My prediction of the new distribution platform will be ChatGPT, in some ways that people probably already think it's happening in some ways that it won't, but the thing that is less important or that is more important than whether I have predicted the exact winner correctly, the thing that's more important is to understand the cycle and evaluate how to determine where you want to place your bets and how to place those bets, which I know we'll talk about.

“My prediction of the new distribution platform will be ChatGPT, in some ways that people probably already think it's happening in some ways that it won't, but the thing that is less important or that is more important than whether I have predicted the exact winner correctly, the thing that's more important is to understand the cycle and evaluate how to determine where you want to place your bets and how to place those bets, which I know we'll talk about.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

05 / commitment

One company that we worked with developed this constraint that they benchmarked against other companies of their revenue size and the team sizes for those stages, and they set a benchmark that we will be one-fifth, each of our functions will be one-fifth the size.

“One company that we worked with developed this constraint that they benchmarked against other companies of their revenue size and the team sizes for those stages, and they set a benchmark that we will be one-fifth, each of our functions will be one-fifth the size.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

06 / belief

On that note, which I think os a very good summary of what you're trying to do in a startup and distribution, is that we're right now living in this environment where that game of startups getting distribution faster than the incumbent has gotten way harder in a lot of ways, and in some small cases has gotten a little bit easier.

“On that note, which I think os a very good summary of what you're trying to do in a startup and distribution, is that we're right now living in this environment where that game of startups getting distribution faster than the incumbent has gotten way harder in a lot of ways, and in some small cases has gotten a little bit easier.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

08 / belief

All of the ingredients for new distribution platform are essentially happening. My prediction, the new distribution platform will be ChatGPT.

“All of the ingredients for new distribution platform are essentially happening. My prediction, the new distribution platform will be ChatGPT.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

09 / belief

Other than that, I would say, once they launch these platforms, you can't do much else, so you really know what the value exchange is and what they're going to expose for you, but also just be prepared to turn your strategy on a dime and go all in.

“Other than that, I would say, once they launch these platforms, you can't do much else, so you really know what the value exchange is and what they're going to expose for you, but also just be prepared to turn your strategy on a dime and go all in.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

10 / uncertainty

I don't know why that just hit me, but you took a focused bet and you've benefited from it in a disproportional way than those that came later.

“I don't know why that just hit me, but you took a focused bet and you've benefited from it in a disproportional way than those that came later.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

11 / belief

One is that, if you're a CEO listening to this, I would say that most CEOs or most executives are incredibly disconnected from the actual AI adoption taking place inside their companies.

“One is that, if you're a CEO listening to this, I would say that most CEOs or most executives are incredibly disconnected from the actual AI adoption taking place inside their companies.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

12 / prediction

There will be smaller platforms that will emerge, and they will follow the exact same cycle that I'm also discussing, but in terms of the biggest consumer one, that's where I think ChatGPT has probably the most escape velocity and others will focus on different areas.

“There will be smaller platforms that will emerge, and they will follow the exact same cycle that I'm also discussing, but in terms of the biggest consumer one, that's where I think ChatGPT has probably the most escape velocity and others will focus on different areas.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

13 / prediction

Things are changing dramatically on a week-to-week basis, so we'll see if they're able to press those advantages in a very clear way. But I think the window is very small for them if ChatGPT plays their cards right, because they clearly have the escape velocity right now.

“Things are changing dramatically on a week-to-week basis, so we'll see if they're able to press those advantages in a very clear way. But I think the window is very small for them if ChatGPT plays their cards right, because they clearly have the escape velocity right now.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

14 / prediction

There's multiple ways that this can happen, but one of the major ways, one of the major, major ways that we always see is that this can happen when new distribution platforms emerge, because when new distribution platforms emerge, startups are usually the fastest to take advantage of them.

“There's multiple ways that this can happen, but one of the major ways, one of the major, major ways that we always see is that this can happen when new distribution platforms emerge, because when new distribution platforms emerge, startups are usually the fastest to take advantage of them.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

15 / evaluation

These models by themselves, if you compare them side by side, they generate the same result, and so the actual difference-maker is which one has more of your context, because it's the context plus the model that produces the best output, and then that starts to accrue to this loop around memory.

“These models by themselves, if you compare them side by side, they generate the same result, and so the actual difference-maker is which one has more of your context, because it's the context plus the model that produces the best output, and then that starts to accrue to this loop around memory.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

16 / evaluation

We saw that in the early Twitter days with things like Vine and Periscope, shutting those things down unceremoniously, or they need to find ways to monetize at a deeper and deeper level because all these companies, they have to grow.

“We saw that in the early Twitter days with things like Vine and Periscope, shutting those things down unceremoniously, or they need to find ways to monetize at a deeper and deeper level because all these companies, they have to grow.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

17 / evaluation

Because all of these dynamics, in all the history, they either end up in monopolies or duopolies, and so the stakes are really large and so the competition is fierce.

“Because all of these dynamics, in all the history, they either end up in monopolies or duopolies, and so the stakes are really large and so the competition is fierce.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

18 / evaluation

In the blog post that I wrote about this, I actually then played my own devil's advocate and said, "Okay, here are some reasons why it might not be ChatGPT," but I think we're in that part of the cycle.

“In the blog post that I wrote about this, I actually then played my own devil's advocate and said, "Okay, here are some reasons why it might not be ChatGPT," but I think we're in that part of the cycle.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

19 / evaluation

That's probably just based on what real estate and where people live in the stack would own. And then, I think right behind that, I would probably put Google because of owning the context of things like email and the distribution points of search and Chrome and Android and those types of pieces.

“That's probably just based on what real estate and where people live in the stack would own. And then, I think right behind that, I would probably put Google because of owning the context of things like email and the distribution points of search and Chrome and Android and those types of pieces.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

20 / belief

Lesson seven is use cases, not personas. So the trope I think is always to talk to your customers, know your customers, and it just puts a lot of emphasis on understanding the person or category of person.

“Lesson seven is use cases, not personas. So the trope I think is always to talk to your customers, know your customers, and it just puts a lot of emphasis on understanding the person or category of person.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

21 / belief

I got exposed to so many things I probably wouldn't have been exposed to otherwise. But one of the things that I learned in that, reflecting on that experience, is that the most miserable couples in the wedding planning process were the ones that were trying to solve for everybody, their fiance, both sets of parents, the friends, that annoying Uncle Eddie that you might have.

“I got exposed to so many things I probably wouldn't have been exposed to otherwise. But one of the things that I learned in that, reflecting on that experience, is that the most miserable couples in the wedding planning process were the ones that were trying to solve for everybody, their fiance, both sets of parents, the friends, that annoying Uncle Eddie that you might have.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

23 / belief

I think a lot of folks have really come to this realization through some of these hard times where a lot of pressure gets put on prioritization and budget cuts and stuff.

“I think a lot of folks have really come to this realization through some of these hard times where a lot of pressure gets put on prioritization and budget cuts and stuff.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

26 / belief

' Here's what I've personally experienced, and I've talked to a lot of founders about this as well, where I think historically I've gotten really caught in this trap where at any moment in Reforge, it's like, "Ah, if I just solve this one thing that's X problem, everything's going to get easier.

“' Here's what I've personally experienced, and I've talked to a lot of founders about this as well, where I think historically I've gotten really caught in this trap where at any moment in Reforge, it's like, "Ah, if I just solve this one thing that's X problem, everything's going to get easier.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

27 / belief

Yeah, I learned a ton even from my brief time there, but yeah, that company has executed so well over a long period of time. It's just like, yeah, so many lessons there that I took away and I'm sure exist that I don't have knowledge of now because I haven't been there in some time.

“Yeah, I learned a ton even from my brief time there, but yeah, that company has executed so well over a long period of time. It's just like, yeah, so many lessons there that I took away and I'm sure exist that I don't have knowledge of now because I haven't been there in some time.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

28 / uncertainty

The thing in Linear's case is that they are building a product for themselves essentially right now, that product is designed for modern software development teams who are most used by engineers and designers. So it makes sense that they have an intuitive sense of what the customer wants, whereas if they're building a product for, I don't know, call it sales folks, the engineers and designers just are probably not connected to that audience in the same exact way.

“The thing in Linear's case is that they are building a product for themselves essentially right now, that product is designed for modern software development teams who are most used by engineers and designers. So it makes sense that they have an intuitive sense of what the customer wants, whereas if they're building a product for, I don't know, call it sales folks, the engineers and designers just are probably not connected to that audience in the same exact way.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

29 / observation

When people think that's the only way that they can progress or the only way that they don't have to make these trade-offs, you end up with a lot of folks in those roles who are neither good at them or don't really want to do at them.

“When people think that's the only way that they can progress or the only way that they don't have to make these trade-offs, you end up with a lot of folks in those roles who are neither good at them or don't really want to do at them.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

30 / belief

At certain moments in my career, I had what I think a lot of people would call mastermind groups where I would get people at a similar stage of company as me together, we would meet biweekly or monthly and all those types of things.

“At certain moments in my career, I had what I think a lot of people would call mastermind groups where I would get people at a similar stage of company as me together, we would meet biweekly or monthly and all those types of things.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

32 / evaluation

Especially as a company grows, there's all sorts of processes to put somebody up for a promotion and all that kind of stuff, and the way a lot of those processes are designed is the individual that's going up for promotion tries to tell a story about what they have accomplished and then the manager's going to advocate for them. And I think in that process, there's just too many opportunities to either twist what actually happened or there's all sorts of biases that end up involving.

“Especially as a company grows, there's all sorts of processes to put somebody up for a promotion and all that kind of stuff, and the way a lot of those processes are designed is the individual that's going up for promotion tries to tell a story about what they have accomplished and then the manager's going to advocate for them. And I think in that process, there's just too many opportunities to either twist what actually happened or there's all sorts of biases that end up involving.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

33 / preference

'" That's the conversation I want to be having. But if I've got to be pushing the team of like, "Hey, this is too conservative," or, "This isn't going to be enough," or, "I don't know if it's going to be worth the resources," I don't want to be pushing the team.

“'" That's the conversation I want to be having. But if I've got to be pushing the team of like, "Hey, this is too conservative," or, "This isn't going to be enough," or, "I don't know if it's going to be worth the resources," I don't want to be pushing the team.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

34 / preference

These are all, I think, old recommendations, but I think the ones that get to the root and incredible first principles thinking and try to pack an entire life's worth of lessons into a couple hundred pages versus draw one lesson out over a couple hundred pages, those are the books that I've walked away with the most.

“These are all, I think, old recommendations, but I think the ones that get to the root and incredible first principles thinking and try to pack an entire life's worth of lessons into a couple hundred pages versus draw one lesson out over a couple hundred pages, those are the books that I've walked away with the most.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

35 / commitment

I want to help create the environment where I'm helping them get the information they need to make those types of decisions and make decisions for themselves because I think ultimately that's what will hopefully set them up for a successful life.

“I want to help create the environment where I'm helping them get the information they need to make those types of decisions and make decisions for themselves because I think ultimately that's what will hopefully set them up for a successful life.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

37 / recommendation

They were all disasters. And we had so many smart people around the table who had gone through these processes before, but I think when you're in that incredibly fast-growing stage, or you're in the earliest stage where you're landing a bunch of new bets that are a bit ambiguous and it's more like product marketing fit mode, kind of closer to that end of the spectrum, I think you're much better served by incredibly light planning processes where 80 to 90% of the assets produced are actual visuals of the experience.

“They were all disasters. And we had so many smart people around the table who had gone through these processes before, but I think when you're in that incredibly fast-growing stage, or you're in the earliest stage where you're landing a bunch of new bets that are a bit ambiguous and it's more like product marketing fit mode, kind of closer to that end of the spectrum, I think you're much better served by incredibly light planning processes where 80 to 90% of the assets produced are actual visuals of the experience.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

39 / evaluation

Whereas I think in a lot of planning processes, you get those things out really fast, and then 80% of the process is churning on the last little bits that ultimately don't matter in the end.

“Whereas I think in a lot of planning processes, you get those things out really fast, and then 80% of the process is churning on the last little bits that ultimately don't matter in the end.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

40 / evaluation

So I think a story from very early Reforge days. So when we started Reforge the norm in the education space online, that thing that everybody was talking about at the time was essentially these short form, self-serve, low-priced, available for everybody courses.

“So I think a story from very early Reforge days. So when we started Reforge the norm in the education space online, that thing that everybody was talking about at the time was essentially these short form, self-serve, low-priced, available for everybody courses.”
Speaker
Brian Balfour
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast
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