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9 transcript-backed records
01 / evaluation
“We think that would be a bad outcome for all the reasons, because there's a lot of upside to having liquid markets and a variety of different things.”
02 / recommendation
“We don't know yet, but I think you could roughly let the models run for, make predictions on same set of markets for a month or two and see which ones perform that percentage of predictions that were correct, P&L over time, etc.”
03 / evaluation
“You cannot find like a clearly defined demographic who they are. And I think that the thing where we got to now, and that took a very long time and you had to incentivize, is we have the community, a strong community of superforecasters that are on Kalshi that can help price these things extremely effectively and fast.”
04 / evaluation
“High odds don't always correlate to like a good outcome. So you saw Mamdani when his odds were 94% on Kalshi, the thing that he was mentioning pretty consistently, and I think there was a little bit of worry there, it's like you've got to show up.”
05 / evaluation
“I think that maybe the simple frame for this is you are increasing market efficiency for all these questions.”
06 / evaluation
“It's like, are we feeling too certain about this person? And I think that depolarizes things because the dimension is not, we're not one-dimensional anymore, which is like Republican, Democrat.”
07 / preference
“I think people, when they think about, have a difference of opinion on something, it's sort of becoming synonymous to like, "Oh, let me pull up Kalshi and see the odds," or "Let me sort of place a position on Kalshi.”
08 / prediction
“Like the incentive structure for most things that we read these days is clickbait, whether it's a lot of traditional news or social media or other. So there was more of a pressing problem, I think, that helped create the wave and this sort of adoption that you're seeing in prediction markets that I don't think happened or would have happened 15 years ago.”
09 / evaluation
“Because at least I believe, but you don't have to trust me, maybe you should trust markets, that this sort of analysis around DoorDash was actually quite poor.”