Tarek Mansour: evaluation

Transcript context

…That's fair. But in a way, it's like it's better to have the data and then use it as an input to something than not. But when we say we want to have prices on a lot of things, it doesn't mean everything. There are a lot of things that we wouldn't do, like wildfires we don't do. War, terrorism, assassination. Those things are bad. There's a moral side of these markets and we're not going to ever go there. But in general, it's in a world of social media is like, you don't know what's true anymore. My feed is like, is it real? Is it not real? Did this happen? It's just better to have a source, an unbiased source of information that you can kind of use it for other things. And I think that that value is there. I think that maybe the simple frame for this is you are increasing market efficiency for all these questions. That's what's happening. It's including potentially some events or things that relate to maybe private companies. And I was just thinking about the question, it's an interesting question, why do companies go public? Why is it important to get a real-time market price? Because there are downsides. Sometimes markets are erratic. Sometimes they overshoot in either direction. But the market on the long enough time horizon is a good sort of allocator. It's a good weighing mechanism. It's a good allocator of capital. And I don't really see that... I just think that pricing a lot of these questions will just increase efficiency. Make our function, our allocating function better over time. And there will be some net losers. Like some people that maybe capital shouldn't be allocated to. It's also a good feedback loop. If you're a CEO of a public company and you announce something and it just keeps going down, you're like, "Maybe I'm wrong." And I think the same thing you see with politicians where you can see in the live debate, if they say some answers and they see their prices going lower, they're like, "Well, maybe the answers aren't great." And I think a lot of these things, when we see even the, for example, the use case of prediction markets in government, a lot of it is conditional markets. They can say, if we pass this bill, will unemployment go up or down? And you can price these things for better decision-making and just like a tighter feedback loop tied with good incentives.…

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