Tarek Mansour: prediction

Transcript context

…I do think that there is a part of it that crypto at the time was augur and there was like some very early prediction markets. I think that the existence of that made the CFTC also be like, "We need a legal regulated alternative to this." Because before you could just say no to things. I do think that played a role, but maybe like 5%, maybe 10%. I don't think it's more than that. The broader thing is there's always intellectual interest in prediction market. And I think that started in the '50s. It is a better source of signal than most other mechanisms of getting signal. But there wasn't a real pain. I think 10, 15 years ago in the way that there is pain in the last few years. And that pain, I think, is the country is more polarized. I would say the world is more polarized. Social media has really bifurcated social feeds. Clickbait is rampant. Like the incentive structure for most things that we read these days is clickbait, whether it's a lot of traditional news or social media or other. So there was more of a pressing problem, I think, that helped create the wave and this sort of adoption that you're seeing in prediction markets that I don't think happened or would have happened 15 years ago. Because the problem wasn't that— Yeah, and that's because most of our users, like 80% of our users are actually just looking, consuming information. They're just coming in and seeing who's going to win the Texas primary yesterday and seeing, "Ok, the polls are saying they're tied, but they're not tied" and all those things. That consumption of information is way more important and relevant now.…

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